Asia faces high exposure to possible energy supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged disruption could lead to an extended energy shock across the region.<\/p>\n
Such a shock could raise inflation risks, worsen current account positions, and weaken economic growth. This would leave some regional currencies under pressure.<\/p>\n
KRW, PHP and THB are described as likely to remain vulnerable under these conditions. The risk is linked to their sensitivity to higher energy costs.<\/p>\n
CNY is described as relatively insulated and more resilient, supported by a higher energy self-sufficiency rate and large strategic reserves. MYR may receive some support because it often moves in step with CNY, alongside strong domestic fundamentals.<\/p>\n
The article states it was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
Given the growing risk of energy flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, we should prepare for a significant shock to the region. The recent increase in naval patrols has already pushed oil price volatility higher, reminding us of the similar tensions in late 2025 that caused a temporary spike in shipping insurance costs. An extended crisis would hit Asian economies hard by fueling inflation and hurting growth.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, we are positioning for weakness in the South Korean Won, Philippine Peso, and Thai Baht. South Korea’s dependency on crude oil imports, which hit 98% in 2025, makes the KRW particularly exposed to price shocks. Consequently, we are seeing increased demand for put options on the KRW as traders hedge against a sharp depreciation.<\/p>\n
A strategy to consider is shorting a basket of these vulnerable currencies against the US dollar. The Thai Baht is also a key focus, as Thailand\u2019s net energy imports last year accounted for over 55% of its total consumption. These economies lack the buffers to absorb a sustained period of high energy prices, which will likely pressure their currencies.<\/p>\n
By contrast, the Chinese Yuan is expected to remain relatively insulated, creating opportunities for relative value trades. China’s domestic energy production now covers over 80% of its needs, and its strategic petroleum reserves provide a significant cushion. This stability suggests the CNY will likely outperform its regional peers in a risk-off environment.<\/p>\n
This resilience should, in turn, help support the Malaysian Ringgit. As a net exporter of oil and gas, Malaysia stands to benefit from higher energy prices, a fundamental strength we also noted in our 2025 outlook. Given its strong link to the stable CNY, we are looking at pairing a long MYR position against a short THB position to capitalize on this divergence.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Asia\u2019s energy shock risk rises from Hormuz disruption, pressuring KRW, PHP, THB; CNY resilient, MYR supported.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t