EUR\/JPY recovered earlier losses and traded near 184.40 in European hours on Monday. The daily chart shows sideways movement within an ascending triangle, which points to consolidation.<\/p>\n
Price is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and using the nine-day EMA as support. The nine-day EMA remains above the 50-day EMA, while the 14-day RSI is 55.36, staying above 50.<\/p>\n
Resistance sits near the top of the triangle around 184.70. A move above the triangle could open the way towards the all-time high of 186.88, set on 23 January.<\/p>\n
Support is at 184.00, then the nine-day EMA at 183.94. Below that are the 50-day EMA at 183.46 and the triangle base near 182.90.<\/p>\n
A break below the triangle could tilt conditions lower and bring 180.81 into view. That level marks a nearly four-month low recorded on 12 February.<\/p>\n
With the EUR\/JPY consolidating around 184.40, we see the market coiling within an ascending triangle, which often precedes a significant price move. This technical pattern suggests traders should prepare for a breakout by using options to manage risk and capitalize on the expected increase in volatility. The current setup, holding above the 50-day moving average, maintains a slight bullish advantage.<\/p>\n
For a bullish continuation, we are watching for a decisive break above the 184.70 resistance level. A move past this point would signal a run towards the January 2026 high of 186.88, making call options with a 185.00 strike price an attractive strategy for the coming weeks. This outlook is supported by recent data showing Eurozone core inflation remained persistent at 2.9% in March 2026, suggesting the European Central Bank may be slower to cut rates than previously thought.<\/p>\n
Conversely, a failure to hold the triangle could lead to a sharp decline, and we must be prepared for this outcome. A break below the lower trendline at 182.90 would be a strong bearish signal, creating an opportunity to use put options to target the February 2026 low near 180.81. This would represent a significant shift in market sentiment, likely driven by a change in tone from the Bank of Japan.<\/p>\n
Given the uncertainty of the breakout’s direction, a volatility play could be the most prudent approach. A long straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option near the current price, would profit from a strong move in either direction. This strategy is ideal as the pair’s Average True Range (ATR) has been contracting, indicating a breakout is becoming more likely.<\/p>\n
The underlying fundamentals still favor a strong euro over a weak yen, a trend we saw dominate markets throughout 2025. The Bank of Japan has only just begun to normalize its policy, while the ECB maintains a significant rate advantage, making the carry trade a persistent source of support for the pair. Therefore, any dips toward the lower end of the triangle might be viewed by the broader market as a buying opportunity.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY rebounds near 184.40, consolidating in ascending triangle; resistance 184.70, support 184.00; breakout targets 186.88.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":17053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t