The US Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly lower after two days of gains, trading near 100.10 during Asian hours on Monday. It measures the US Dollar against six major currencies.<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, DXY is moving within an ascending channel pattern. It remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and both EMAs are trending upwards.<\/p>\n
The latest pullback from last week\u2019s peak has been limited. The short-term average is still above the medium-term line.<\/p>\n
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 58. This stays in positive territory and is not in overbought conditions.<\/p>\n
On the upside, DXY may test the 10-month high of 100.64 set on 31 March. A further move could bring the upper channel area near 102.40 into view.<\/p>\n
Support is at the nine-day EMA near 99.95, then the lower channel boundary around 99.70. If price breaks below the channel, it could test the 50-day EMA at 99.02.<\/p>\n
The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.<\/p>\n
Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw a bullish technical setup for the US Dollar Index when it was trading around 100.10. The ascending channel pattern and positive moving averages suggested persistent buying interest. That analysis pointed towards a potential move to a high of 102.40.<\/p>\n
Today, the environment has changed, with the DXY trading around 104.20 after a prolonged rally. Recent data, however, suggests a potential turning point as the March 2026 jobs report showed weaker-than-expected growth of 175,000 jobs. Additionally, the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the Consumer Price Index has cooled to 2.8% year-over-year, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
This shift in economic data has led the market to price in a higher probability of interest rate cuts later this year. We see this reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, which now indicates expectations for at least two rate cuts before year-end. This is a significant change from the hawkish stance that propelled the dollar for much of the past year.<\/p>\n
Given this fundamental shift, we should consider strategies that hedge against or profit from a potential decline in the dollar. Buying put options on the DXY or on dollar-centric ETFs like UUP provides a defined-risk way to position for a downward move. The increase in market uncertainty has pushed implied volatility slightly higher, making these options more sensitive.<\/p>\n
For those with a more neutral view, selling out-of-the-money call credit spreads on DXY futures could be a strategy to collect premium. This approach benefits if the dollar trades sideways or moves lower in the coming weeks. We must now watch the 103.50 level as a key support, a break of which could confirm a change in the long-term uptrend we saw developing back in 2025.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY slips near 100.10, still in rising channel; RSI positive, eyes 100.64 resistance, 99.95 support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}