GBP\/USD rebounded from about 1.3175 in Asian trading on Monday, ending a two-day fall and moving back above 1.3200. Further gains were limited by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg, citing Axios, said the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This report weighed on the safe-haven US dollar and supported the pair, though US President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran\u2019s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Technically, the pair remains below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and that SMA is sloping lower. The MACD is flattening just under the zero line with a marginally negative histogram, and the RSI is near 43, below the 50 midline.<\/p>\n
Resistance is seen at 1.3240 and 1.3300, with a move above 1.3300 needed to test the 200-period SMA near 1.3370. Support is at 1.3190, and a break could extend losses towards 1.3150.<\/p>\n
We remember looking back in 2025 at how geopolitical headlines, like the brief US-Iran ceasefire talks, created sharp but temporary moves in GBP\/USD. This taught us that the US Dollar’s safe-haven status can be quickly shaken by perceptions of de-escalation. Those patterns of volatility around geopolitical news serve as a crucial reminder for our current strategies.<\/p>\n
Today, the focus has shifted from those past military tensions to a clear economic divergence. The Bank of England has maintained a hawkish stance, holding its key interest rate at 5.25% through the first quarter of 2026. With UK core inflation reported at a stubborn 3.1% for February 2026, the market is pricing out significant rate cuts this year, providing a firm floor for the Pound.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the US economy is showing signs of softening, a stark contrast to the previous year. The March 2026 non-farm payrolls report came in at 165,000, missing forecasts for the second consecutive month and raising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this summer. This fundamental weakness puts sustained pressure on the US Dollar against currencies with more resilient central bank policy.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment suggests a cautiously bullish outlook on GBP\/USD is appropriate. Buying call options with strike prices near the 1.3300 level could be a way to capitalize on further upside driven by this policy divergence. Traders could use the old support level of 1.3150 as a guide for setting stop-losses or purchasing protective puts in case US economic data suddenly strengthens.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GBP\/USD rebounds above 1.3200 as ceasefire talks weaken dollar; technicals bearish, with resistance and support levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":17030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}