Gold traded near $4,675 in early Asian hours on Friday, after falling below $4,700. Trade was muted due to the Good Friday holiday.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that US \u201cobjectives are nearing completion\u201d in Iran, but added the US would hit Iran \u201cextremely hard\u201d for the next two to three weeks. The comments lifted crude oil prices and reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n
Gold does not pay interest, so it can lose appeal when rates are expected to stay higher. Traders were also waiting for the US March jobs report due on Friday.<\/p>\n
Markets expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 60,000 in March, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.4%. A weaker reading could weigh on the US Dollar and support gold, which is priced in dollars.<\/p>\n
Central banks remain major holders of gold and add it to diversify reserves. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record, with China, India and Turkey among those increasing holdings.<\/p>\n
With gold pulling back to the $4,675 level, our immediate focus is the Nonfarm Payrolls report due today. The market is pricing in a soft 60,000 jobs, so any significant deviation will likely trigger a sharp move in the US Dollar and, consequently, gold. A number below this expectation could ignite a relief rally for the precious metal as it would increase bets on future interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n
The President’s remarks on Iran introduce a defined two-to-three-week period of heightened geopolitical risk. This creates a clear timeline for traders to position for increased volatility, not just in gold but also in crude oil, which has already spiked. We expect defensive assets to be well-supported during this window, but gold’s performance will be a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and the pressure from higher interest rates.<\/p>\n
This dynamic is creating headwinds for gold because the surge in oil prices complicates the Federal Reserve’s path, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts that the market had been anticipating. We saw a similar scenario back in 2022 when energy shocks fueled inflation and forced aggressive monetary tightening. The CME FedWatch tool now shows futures markets are pricing in a lower probability of a near-term rate cut than they were just last week.<\/p>\n
However, we must remember the underlying support from institutional buyers. Following the record-breaking purchases we saw in 2022, central banks continued to add historic amounts of gold to their reserves through 2024 and 2025, consistently absorbing over 1,000 tonnes annually. This persistent demand from sovereigns provides a strong, long-term floor under the market, making any deep sell-offs attractive buying opportunities for them.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar remains the most critical variable for the coming weeks. A weak jobs report would likely push the dollar lower and send gold back toward the recent highs above $4,700. Conversely, a surprisingly strong NFP figure would bolster the dollar and could see gold test lower support levels, potentially near $4,600.<\/p>\n
Given this uncertainty, options strategies that benefit from a spike in volatility look attractive. We believe buying straddles or strangles with expirations in late April or early May could be an effective way to trade the upcoming period. This approach allows a trader to profit from a large price move in either direction without having to perfectly predict the outcome of the NFP report or the Iran situation.<\/p>\n
For those with a directional bias, vertical spreads offer a risk-defined way to participate. If you believe geopolitical fears will ultimately outweigh rate concerns, a bull call spread could capture upside potential. Conversely, if you expect a strong jobs report and a de-escalation of tensions, a bear put spread would be a suitable strategy.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold slipped below $4,700 as holiday-thinned trade watched Iran tensions, jobs data, and central bank buying.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}