Gold fell about 2% after comments from US President Donald Trump reduced expectations of a quick end to the Iran conflict. XAU\/USD traded at $4,659 after dropping from a daily high of $4,800.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index rose 0.40% to 99.95, while the 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.311%. Markets now focus on Friday\u2019s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.<\/p>\n
Trump said the operation could last two to three weeks and warned that US action could extend to Iran\u2019s energy and oil infrastructure without an agreement. A US official told Axios the destroyed bridge shown online was used to move missiles and parts.<\/p>\n
Reports also cited explosions in Baghdad. Iran\u2019s President Pezeshkian said Iran is not seeking to widen the conflict, according to Iraq State News Agency.<\/p>\n
US data showed the trade deficit widened in February as imports rebounded faster than exports. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 202K from 215K, below the 212K forecast.<\/p>\n
Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported 60.62K layoffs in March, up more than 24% from 2025 figures. Prime Market Terminal data shows swaps pricing the Fed holding rates unchanged through 2026.<\/p>\n
March payrolls are forecast at 60K after February\u2019s -92K, with unemployment seen at 4.4%. Technical levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,780 and the 100-day SMA at $4,632, with support at $4,553, $4,500, and $4,351.<\/p>\n
Given the sharp 2% drop in gold, we are seeing the US Dollar reassert itself as the primary safe-haven asset. The ongoing conflict in Iran is creating a risk-off mood, but instead of fleeing to gold, money is flowing into the dollar. This dynamic, with the DXY approaching the 100 level, will likely cap any significant rallies in gold for now.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s stance is a major headwind for gold prices. Swaps markets are now pricing in zero interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, a stark reversal from the multiple cuts we were anticipating in late 2025. As a non-yielding asset, gold struggles to compete when interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer.<\/p>\n
All eyes are now on the Nonfarm Payrolls report coming out today. The expectation of a 60,000 job gain is a modest rebound from February’s loss, but it’s far below the robust average of over 230,000 jobs per month we saw throughout 2024. A number significantly above expectations could strengthen the dollar and push gold below its key support at the 100-day moving average of $4,632.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment of high geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty suggests playing volatility. Implied volatility on gold options is elevated, with the Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) recently touching its highest levels since the conflict began in early March. This makes buying options straddles or strangles ahead of the payrolls data a viable strategy to profit from a large price swing in either direction.<\/p>\n
The technical picture outlines a clear trading range in the coming weeks. We should watch the 100-day simple moving average at $4,632 as crucial support and the 20-day SMA at $4,780 as resistance. A decisive break below support on a strong jobs report could trigger a move toward $4,500, making put options attractive.<\/p>\n
Conversely, any surprise weakness in the labor market or a sudden, severe escalation in the Middle East could quickly reverse the dollar’s strength. In that scenario, a break above $4,780 would be our signal to consider call options, targeting the $4,900 level. The key is to remain nimble as conflicting narratives of war and monetary policy battle for control.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold slid 2% as Trump dampened Iran ceasefire hopes; dollar rose; markets await Friday\u2019s jobs report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16977,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}