AUD\/USD slipped towards 0.6890 on Thursday as risk appetite weakened and demand for the US Dollar rose. The pair traded around 0.6891 after earlier moves.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump said the US would intensify military action against Iran and that two to three more weeks of fighting are likely. He ruled out immediate talks, while separate reports said Iran is also unwilling to engage diplomatically.<\/p>\n
Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would \u201cnaturally reopen\u201d after the conflict, while Tehran said control of the Strait remains in its hands alongside Oman. Oil climbed towards $111 per barrel amid concerns about supply disruption linked to the Strait\u2019s closure.<\/p>\n
Stocks, bonds, and gold fell as markets reduced risk exposure. The move came alongside broad price declines across asset classes.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, AUD\/USD rebounded from about 0.6860 and held near the 20-period SMA at roughly 0.6889. The 100-period SMA is near 0.6995, above price.<\/p>\n
The RSI rose towards 48 after being below 30 earlier. Support levels are 0.6886, 0.6866, and 0.6859, with resistance at 0.6897 and 0.6920.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the sharp risk-off event in 2025, we recall how AUD\/USD plunged toward 0.6890 during the intense US-Iran conflict. Today, the situation is less acute, although Middle East tensions remain a background concern for markets. With the pair currently trading around 0.6650, the dynamics have clearly shifted.<\/p>\n
We saw oil spike to $111 a barrel then, a direct result of the Strait of Hormuz closure fears. Currently, WTI crude is trading in a more stable range around $86 a barrel, which eases some pressure on the global economy. This difference is crucial, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains elevated near 105, reflecting persistent strength in the greenback.<\/p>\n
The 2025 conflict triggered a surge in implied volatility across asset classes, making long volatility positions like buying puts on AUD\/USD highly profitable. Today\u2019s environment feels different; while headline risk exists, implied volatility on major currency pairs has compressed significantly from those highs. This suggests that strategies like selling covered calls or cash-secured puts on AUD could be more attractive, aiming to collect premium in a market that is consolidating.<\/p>\n
Unlike the pure safe-haven rush of 2025, the Aussie dollar’s current weakness is more tied to domestic factors and interest rate differentials. With Australia’s latest quarterly inflation figures coming in at 3.6%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is maintaining a hawkish stance, but it is not enough to overpower the strong US dollar. Therefore, we should be looking at AUD crosses, not just the US dollar pair, to find opportunities away from the direct influence of US policy.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD dips near 0.6890 as Iran conflict fears lift dollar, oil surges, and risk assets weaken.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}