Swiss March CPI inflation rose slightly from near zero, reducing pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to take its policy rate below zero.<\/p>\n
A recent rise in market expectations for European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes points to a wider short-term interest-rate gap in favour of the euro, which could support EUR\/CHF.<\/p>\n
The move in EUR\/CHF away from recent lows last month is also linked to the risk of Swiss foreign-exchange intervention, which can influence the exchange rate.<\/p>\n
Despite firmer Swiss inflation and the prospect of ECB tightening, the Swiss franc is expected to stay firm, with EUR\/CHF seen dipping towards 0.90 in the coming months.<\/p>\n
In the near term, safe-haven demand and diversification flows are expected to continue supporting the Swiss franc.<\/p>\n
The article was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
We see the Swiss franc remaining well-supported in the near term. Safe-haven flows are a key driver, especially with renewed volatility in energy markets over the past month. This reinforces the view that the franc will hold its underlying strength against the euro.<\/p>\n
The latest data supports this, with Swiss inflation for February 2026 holding steady at a low 1.2%. This is well below the Eurozone\u2019s flash estimate of 2.5%, giving the Swiss National Bank little reason to weaken its currency. The interest rate difference is therefore not providing the euro with much support.<\/p>\n
Looking back, we saw how the SNB’s threat of intervention was a major factor pushing EUR\/CHF away from its lows in late 2025. With inflation now comfortably above zero, there is less pressure on the central bank to intervene so aggressively. This leaves the franc more exposed to its fundamental safe-haven appeal.<\/p>\n
Given this outlook, derivative traders should consider positioning for a drop in EUR\/CHF over the coming weeks. Buying put options on EUR\/CHF with strike prices near 0.9100 could prove effective. This strategy prepares for a potential dip towards the 0.9000 area, a level we see as increasingly likely by mid-year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Swiss inflation edged up, easing SNB negative-rate pressure; ECB hike bets and intervention risk lift EUR\/CHF.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46227\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}