NZD\/USD fell nearly 0.8% after two days of gains and traded near 0.5710 during European hours on Thursday. The pair remains within a descending channel on the daily chart.<\/p>\n
Price is below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the nine-day EMA near 0.5764. The 50-day EMA is at 0.5857 and has slipped.<\/p>\n
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 35 and remains below the midline. This points to weak momentum.<\/p>\n
The pair is testing support at 0.5699, a four-month low set on March 31. Further support sits near the channel base around 0.5640.<\/p>\n
If price falls below the channel, the next area is near 0.5580, an 11-month low last seen in November 2025. This would extend the current decline.<\/p>\n
Resistance is at the channel top around 0.5820, with the 50-day EMA at 0.5857. A break above this area could shift price towards 0.5996, the monthly high from March 2.<\/p>\n
We see the NZD\/USD pair is holding losses around the 0.5710 level, confirming the persistent weakness within its descending channel. This price action is testing the significant support at the four-month low of 0.5699. Given the Relative Strength Index is at a low 35, the downward momentum appears strong.<\/p>\n
This technical weakness is reinforced by fundamental pressures, as New Zealand’s trade balance figures released yesterday showed a wider-than-expected deficit due to falling dairy prices. This contrasts sharply with the US, where March non-farm payrolls came in surprisingly strong at 285,000, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer. This policy divergence is putting significant weight on the pair.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, we believe traders should consider buying put options to position for a potential break below the 0.5699 support. Establishing positions with strike prices near 0.5650 would align with a move toward the channel\u2019s lower boundary. Implied volatility on NZD\/USD options has ticked up to 12.5%, the highest since January, suggesting the market is pricing in larger price swings which can make options attractive.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, we must watch the 0.5764 level, which represents the nine-day moving average and immediate resistance. A decisive daily close above this point could signal that the bearish momentum is fading, potentially warranting hedges or a reassessment of short positions. We saw a similar setup of prolonged weakness in the third quarter of 2025 before the pair eventually dropped to its November lows near 0.5580.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZD\/USD slid 0.8% to 0.5710, staying bearish; key support 0.5699\/0.5640, resistance 0.5820.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46175\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}