BNP Paribas forecasts US GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025. It expects inflation to run at 3.1% in 2026 and stay above target until at least 2028.<\/p>\n
The bank links the inflation path to tariffs and higher oil prices. It also says the impact of tariffs is smaller than expected.<\/p>\n
It reports that the FOMC delivered three interest rate cuts in 2025, totalling 75 basis points. It projects the Fed Funds target range will stay at 3.5% to 3.75% throughout 2026.<\/p>\n
Despite the growth and inflation outlook, BNP Paribas expects the US dollar to weaken against the euro into late 2026. It also projects the yen and sterling will edge down against the dollar, with USD\/JPY at 160 and GBP\/USD at 1.3 in Q4 2026.<\/p>\n
The article says it was produced using an AI tool and checked by an editor.<\/p>\n
With the Federal Reserve expected to hold its target range steady throughout 2026, volatility in short-term interest rate markets should remain subdued. After the series of cuts we saw in 2025, this stability suggests traders could look at selling options on SOFR futures to collect premium, betting on a lack of significant rate moves. This view is reinforced by the latest February 2026 CPI data, which showed inflation holding firm at 3.2%, giving the Fed little reason to change course.<\/p>\n
We expect the dollar’s depreciation against the euro to continue in the weeks ahead. Current resilience in the US economy, with recent data pointing to a potential Q1 2026 GDP growth rate of 2.9%, is ironically weighing on the dollar as it reduces safe-haven demand. Given the EUR\/USD is trading near 1.10, traders could use call options to position for further upside.<\/p>\n
Conversely, we anticipate a slight weakening of the yen and the pound against a broadly steady dollar. With USD\/JPY currently trading around 155, interest rate differentials continue to favor the dollar, making call spreads targeting the 160 level an attractive strategy for the coming months. For the British pound, which is hovering near 1.33, traders might consider buying puts to position for a gradual decline towards 1.30 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n
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