The S&P 500 E\u2011Mini Futures (ES) reached an all\u2011time high of 7043 on 28 January 2026. After this peak, the market moved into a larger correction, marking the end of the cycle that started from the April 2025 low.<\/p>\n
From the 28 January high, wave W ended at 6584.5. The following rally in wave X ended at 6852.65.<\/p>\n
Wave Y then began to move lower as a zigzag. Within wave Y, wave ((a)) ended at 6483.5, and wave ((b)) rose to 6748.<\/p>\n
The target for wave Y is based on the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W. This projects a zone from 6110 to 6391.<\/p>\n
This zone is expected to support a stabilisation and at least a three\u2011wave rally. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 6852.65 holds, the decline is expected to continue.<\/p>\n
Since peaking at 7043 in late January, the S&P 500 has been in a clear corrective phase, confirming the end of the powerful rally that we saw start back in April 2025. This downturn aligns with recent inflation data for February, which came in hotter than expected at 3.5%, causing the market to reassess the Federal Reserve’s path. As of today, March 27, 2026, this corrective structure remains firmly in place.<\/p>\n
Given the expectation for the index to extend lower, traders could consider bearish positions in the coming weeks. This might involve buying put options or establishing put debit spreads to capitalize on the anticipated move down into our target zone. The key level to watch is the 6852.65 pivot; as long as the market stays below it, this short-term bearish view is valid.<\/p>\n
The rise in market uncertainty is reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has climbed from around 15 in January to over 22 this week. This elevated volatility increases the cost of options but also signals that traders are actively hedging against further declines. Such an environment is typical for the developing Y-wave of a correction.<\/p>\n
We anticipate that significant buying interest will emerge in the 6391 to 6110 support zone. As the index enters this area, traders should shift their focus from bearish to bullish setups, looking for signs of a bottoming process. This could be an opportunity to initiate long positions through call options or by selling cash-secured puts, positioning for the expected three-wave rally.<\/p>\n
This price action is reminiscent of what we observed during the corrections of 2022, where Fed policy shifts also drove initial market declines before finding a floor. In that period, sharp pullbacks created strong buying opportunities for those who were patient. We believe a similar setup is forming now, where this current weakness will lead to a significant rebound from our target area.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" After peaking at 7043, ES entered correction; Fibonacci targets 6110\u20136391, with downside continuing below 6852.65 pivot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16987,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t