USD\/THB rose 0.3% to 32.65 and has trended higher since early March as energy prices increased and gold prices eased. The baht is down 3.5% against the US dollar year-to-date, versus a -1.3% average move for Asian currencies ex-Japan.<\/p>\n
February exports grew 9.9% year-on-year, below a Bloomberg consensus of 17.0%, and down from 24.4% in January, the weakest growth in three months. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) reported two-sided risks to export growth.<\/p>\n
Imports rose 31.8% year-on-year, above a Bloomberg consensus of 25.0%, and up from 29.4% in January, the fastest since December 2021. Capital goods increased 49.3% versus 29.5%, and intermediate goods rose 53.3% versus 20.3%, the strongest since August 2021.<\/p>\n
Thailand\u2019s trade balance stayed in deficit at about -USD2.8bn, compared with a Bloomberg consensus of +USD1.0bn, and versus -USD3.3bn in January. The Ministry of Commerce forecast 2026 exports in a range of -3.1% to 1.1%, with a review due in April.<\/p>\n
TPSO linked the outlook to the war\u2019s effects and whether US importers bring forward shipments before a 10% global tariff expires in July. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
The Thai Baht is clearly showing weakness against its regional peers, making it a target for bearish positions in the coming weeks. A persistent trade deficit and higher global energy costs are the main drivers behind this underperformance. We should therefore see the current upward trend in the USD\/THB pair as likely to continue.<\/p>\n
With Brent crude futures consistently trading above $95 a barrel, Thailand’s import bill will remain inflated, putting further pressure on its current account. The interest rate differential is also a key factor, as the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 2.50% in its February 2026 meeting while the US Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. This environment makes holding US dollars more attractive than holding the Baht.<\/p>\n
We see an opportunity in purchasing USD\/THB call options with expirations in the next one to two months, targeting a move towards the 33.00 level. This strategy offers a defined risk while capitalizing on the current momentum we are observing. This pattern is reminiscent of what we saw back in mid-2022, when a spike in energy costs similarly pushed the pair above 36.<\/p>\n
While the surge in capital and intermediate goods imports is worsening the short-term trade balance, we must watch it closely. This data suggests businesses were investing heavily after the political situation stabilized in late 2025, which could signal a future rebound in manufacturing and exports. A sudden improvement in export data could quickly reverse the Baht’s downward trend.<\/p>\n
The wide range of export forecasts, from -3.1% to +1.1%, signals significant market uncertainty, which we can use to our advantage. Given the two-sided risks mentioned, including the US tariff expiry in July, implied volatility may be underpriced. This suggests strategies that benefit from a large price swing, such as buying options, could be profitable.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Thailand baht weakened as exports slowed, imports surged, and trade deficit persisted amid rising energy prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45667\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}