Mexico\u2019s inflation for the first half of March was 0.62%, above the 0.37% expectation. The data covers the first fortnight of the month.<\/p>\n
The report compares actual price changes with the forecast figure. The 0.62% result was higher than expected by 0.25 percentage points.<\/p>\n
We recall the inflation surprise from March of 2025, when the first-half figure came in hot at 0.62% against a 0.37% forecast. This immediately signaled that the central bank, Banxico, would need to keep interest rates higher for longer. The peso reacted by strengthening significantly against the dollar in the subsequent weeks.<\/p>\n
Fast forward to today, March 24, 2026, and we see a similar environment with annual inflation currently tracking at 4.1%, which is still stubbornly above the central bank’s target. With Banxico’s key interest rate holding steady at 10.75%, the market is pricing in potential cuts later this year. This historical parallel from 2025 suggests another upside surprise in the upcoming inflation data could quickly reverse those expectations.<\/p>\n
For currency derivative traders, this suggests a bullish stance on the Mexican peso. Positioning through short-dated call options on the MXN, or selling USD\/MXN futures, could prove profitable if new data shows persistent inflation. We anticipate the USD\/MXN exchange rate, currently near 17.50, could re-test the 17.20 support level seen earlier this month.<\/p>\n
In the interest rate markets, the focus should shift to the TIIE swap curve. The 2025 event caused the front-end of the curve to sell off as rate cut expectations were pushed back. A similar outcome now would make entering payer swaps on the 28-day TIIE an effective way to position for a more hawkish Banxico.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Mexico\u2019s March first-half inflation hit 0.62%, exceeding the 0.37% forecast by 0.25 percentage points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":17021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}