WTI rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, extending Monday\u2019s rebound from about $84.00, a near two-week low. Prices moved back above the mid-$90.00s on supply risk concerns.<\/p>\n
Iran said it had not held talks with the US to end the war, after comments from US President Donald Trump on Monday about a deal soon. Iranian adviser Mohsen Rezaei said the war would continue until Iran receives full compensation for damage.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s gas infrastructure was reported to be under renewed pressure. Iran\u2019s semi-official Fars news agency said a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in Isfahan.<\/p>\n
A projectile was also reported to have struck a gas pipeline supplying a power station in Khorramshahr. The Strait of Hormuz was described as effectively closed, disrupting energy trade and supporting oil prices.<\/p>\n
Markets also tracked concerns that higher energy costs could lift inflation again. Expectations of a possible US Federal Reserve rate rise and higher US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, which can limit gains in dollar-priced commodities like oil.<\/p>\n
We remember looking back to late 2025 when WTI crude rallied past the mid-$90s as the market priced in significant supply risks from the Middle East. The escalating conflict involving Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a very bullish backdrop for oil. Those supply fears proved to be well-founded and have kept a floor under prices ever since.<\/p>\n
The supply situation remains tight even now in March 2026. Last week’s EIA report showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.8 million barrels, defying forecasts for a build and putting U.S. stockpiles 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Global spare production capacity is also razor-thin, with recent industry estimates putting it below 2.2 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n
The market\u2019s sensitivity to these old tensions is still extremely high. We saw a clear example of this just last month when a minor shipping disruption near a key chokepoint caused prices to jump $3 in a single session before correcting. This demonstrates that the geopolitical risk premium that was built up in 2025 is still very much a factor traders must respect.<\/p>\n
While the threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes was a headwind for oil prices back in 2025, that dynamic has now flipped. After pausing its tightening cycle, the Fed is now signaling a more dovish stance, with Fed funds futures currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut by September 2026. A weaker U.S. dollar, which has fallen 4% against a basket of currencies this year, also provides a tailwind for crude.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests that buying call options to bet on further price upside remains a viable strategy. Given the persistent risk of a sudden price spike, owning long-dated calls in the $100-$110 range could provide significant returns on a geopolitical flare-up. Using bull call spreads can help reduce the initial cost of the trade in an environment of elevated volatility.<\/p>\n
However, any credible diplomatic progress in the Middle East could rapidly deflate oil prices. To hedge against a sudden de-escalation, traders holding bullish positions should consider purchasing out-of-the-money puts. This can protect profits and limit downside exposure if the supply risk that has defined the market since 2025 begins to fade.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI rebounds above mid-$90s as Iran conflict threatens supply, Hormuz disruption, inflation fears cap gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45308"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45308\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}