New Zealand\u2019s exports fell to $6.21B in January, down from $7.65B in the previous period.<\/p>\n
The recent report showing New Zealand’s exports fell to $6.21 billion in January is a significant signal for us. This sharp 18.8% decline from the previous month suggests lower international demand for the country’s goods. Consequently, this points to potential weakness for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
We should consider positioning for a lower NZD\/USD exchange rate. Buying NZD\/USD put options with expiries in the next four to six weeks could be a direct strategy to capitalize on this expected downward pressure. This move is supported by recent data showing a slowdown in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, where manufacturing PMI has remained just below the 50-point mark indicating contraction.<\/p>\n
This export weakness also impacts the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). While we saw inflation was still a concern at the end of 2025, this new data on a slowing economy could force them to adopt a more dovish tone. This might make interest rate futures, which bet on the RBNZ holding or even cutting rates later in the year, an attractive position.<\/p>\n
Historically, we have seen similar situations, such as in the second quarter of 2024, when poor export numbers preceded a multi-cent drop in the kiwi dollar. Given Australia\u2019s key commodity exports have been more stable, a long AUD\/NZD position could also be a valuable hedge. This trade would benefit from the Australian economy’s relative strength compared to New Zealand’s.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" New Zealand exports slid to $6.21B in January, falling from $7.65B in the previous month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42337\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}