WTI rose on Thursday after a 4.9% rally the previous day, reaching about $66.38 a barrel. It was the highest level since August 2025, after a near-5% jump.<\/p>\n
Prices moved higher on reports of rising US-Iran tensions and the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were continuing and referred to a possible outcome in about 10 days. Nuclear negotiations earlier in the week did not produce a breakthrough.<\/p>\n
The Times reported that the UK is blocking the US from using Royal Air Force bases for potential strikes on Iran. This added uncertainty to the outlook.<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, WTI moved back above key moving averages, including the 200-day simple moving average near $62.20. The price pattern shows higher highs and higher lows.<\/p>\n
The RSI was near 63, above 50, while the ADX was around 28 and the Average True Range was 2.05. Resistance sits in the $66.00\u2013$67.00 area, with $70.00 as the next level if it breaks.<\/p>\n
If WTI falls below the 200-day SMA, the 100-day SMA near $59.83 may act as support, followed by $56.00.<\/p>\n
With West Texas Intermediate hitting a six-month high around $66, we see the market pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium from the US-Iran situation. This tension is the primary driver, and our focus should be on strategies that account for a binary outcome over the next ten days. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data supports this strength, showing a larger-than-expected crude inventory draw of 2.7 million barrels this past week, tightening the supply picture even before any potential disruption.<\/p>\n
The “10 days” timeline mentioned for a potential resolution is creating a surge in implied volatility, making options pricing more expensive but also presenting opportunities. This suggests that any trading positions should be structured to profit from a sharp move, as a diplomatic breakthrough could erase the recent gains just as quickly as an escalation could send prices higher. We should therefore consider strategies like long straddles or strangles, which benefit from a large price swing in either direction, especially with expirations just after this key ten-day window.<\/p>\n
For a bullish outlook, buying call options with strike prices at or above the $70 mark seems prudent, targeting the next psychological resistance level. Given the elevated option premiums, using bull call spreads could be a more cost-effective way to express this view, limiting both the upfront cost and potential profit. This strategy would capitalize on a break above the current $66-$67 resistance zone mentioned in the technical analysis.<\/p>\n
Conversely, we must be prepared for a rapid de-escalation that would remove the risk premium from the market. To hedge against this, purchasing put options with a strike below the key 200-day moving average support near $62 could provide effective downside protection. Such a move would be swift if a deal is announced, making puts a necessary insurance policy against any long positions we hold.<\/p>\n
We have seen this pattern before, such as during the tensions in early 2020, when oil prices jumped sharply on news of military action only to retreat later. That historical precedent shows that geopolitical rallies can be short-lived, reinforcing the need to manage risk tightly. The current market’s sensitivity is heightened because the Strait of Hormuz, which is at the center of this tension, handles about 21 million barrels per day, representing a fifth of global consumption according to the latest shipping figures.<\/p>\n
This situation is unfolding against a backdrop of already tight supply, with OPEC+ recently holding firm on its production quotas through the end of the quarter. This underlying fundamental tightness means any actual supply disruption, however small, would have an amplified effect on prices. Therefore, our positions in the coming weeks should be nimble, acknowledging that while the technical trend is upward, the market is one headline away from a major reversal.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI hits $66.38 amid US-Iran tension; technicals bullish above 200-day SMA, eyeing $70 resistance ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42324\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}