Rabobank\u2019s Michael Every says the US Maritime Action Plan (MAP) signals a move away from rules-based free trade towards bloc-led neomercantilist policy. The MAP links to the Section 301 inquiry into China\u2019s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, calling Beijing\u2019s practices \u201cunreasonable and burdensome\u201d.<\/p>\n
The article lists subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfer, and predatory pricing as drivers of China\u2019s position in shipbuilding. It states China has captured over half of the global market.<\/p>\n
The MAP could push more US maritime trade onto US-flagged, and later US-built, vessels. It says 2025 saw fears of an immediate shortage of suitable ships, which raised freight rates.<\/p>\n
The piece says US port fees, alongside tariffs and upstream alliances for critical minerals, may speed up supply-chain fragmentation. It describes two emerging blocs: a US-centred group with Korea and Japan, and possibly Europe, versus a China\u2013Russia-centred bloc.<\/p>\n
It adds US port fees on China were paused during a recent US\u2013China trade d\u00e9tente. If restored, it says China could respond with counter-fees, WTO challenges, or other economic and geopolitical measures.<\/p>\n
This clear shift towards a neomercantilist policy means we should anticipate higher market volatility in the coming weeks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been hovering near 19, could easily surge past 22 as traders begin pricing in the risk of new tariffs and supply chain disruptions. We should consider buying call options on the VIX or using straddles on major indices to profit from the expected increase in price swings.<\/p>\n
The focus on the US maritime sector points directly to a rise in shipping costs. We saw freight rates spike dramatically in 2025 when these ideas were first debated, and the Drewry World Container Index has already ticked up 4% this month to over $3,400 per 40ft container. Traders should look at call options on US-flagged shipping companies and futures contracts tied to freight indexes, as any new port fees will immediately translate into higher prices.<\/p>\n
These supply chain pressures are fundamentally inflationary, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path. With the January CPI report showing core inflation remains sticky at a 3.7% annual rate, the market is now pricing in fewer rate cuts for 2026. We should therefore anticipate continued pressure on interest rate-sensitive assets and consider positions in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures that bet on rates staying higher for longer.<\/p>\n
The creation of distinct US-centric and China-centric trading blocs suggests a strategy of paired trades. We can expect US domestic manufacturers and key allies in Korea and Japan to benefit, making derivatives on their sector-specific ETFs attractive. Conversely, we should look at put options on companies that are heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing and logistics for their supply chains.<\/p>\n
The risk of Chinese retaliation, such as reimposing its own counter-fees, adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for currencies. Any escalation could strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven while putting downward pressure on the Chinese yuan. We should monitor the USD\/CNH currency pair closely, as it will be a key barometer of trade tensions.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US Maritime Action Plan signals bloc-led neomercantilism, targeting China shipbuilding; port fees and tariffs risk fragmented supply chains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42320\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}