US and Iran ended a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Both sides reported progress on guiding principles, but disputes remain over uranium enrichment, sanctions, and the scope of talks.<\/p>\n
Iran held live-fire drills and partly closed the Strait of Hormuz during the talks. The strait carries about 20% of global oil flows, and this was described as the first such closure since a US military build-up in the region began.<\/p>\n
US supply data pulled the other way, as EIA figures showed crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels, the largest weekly build in a year. OPEC+ is leaning towards restarting production increases from April, with a meeting set for 1 March.<\/p>\n
WTI opened Tuesday near $62.20 and rose 3.4% on the day. The move put price back above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 200-day near $62.43\u2013$62.45 and the 50-day at $61.25.<\/p>\n
Resistance is noted at $65.00 and the year-to-date high of $66.25, with $67.00 above that. The Stochastic Oscillator sits in the midrange zone.<\/p>\n
Around this time last year, we saw oil prices whipsaw due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Tensions were high as Iran conducted military drills, partially closing the critical Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical risk created significant volatility for traders to navigate.<\/p>\n
Today, the landscape is different after a limited agreement was reached in late 2025, easing some of the harshest sanctions and allowing more Iranian oil onto the market. However, underlying regional tensions persist, creating a floor for prices as any flare-up could quickly threaten supply routes again. The market has priced in a fragile peace, but remains sensitive to any new developments.<\/p>\n
Looking back to early 2025, we were contending with a massive 8.5 million-barrel weekly build in US crude inventories, which weighed heavily on prices. At that time, OPEC+ was also signaling a potential increase in production, adding to bearish sentiment. This supply glut acted as a significant headwind against the geopolitical fears.<\/p>\n
In a stark contrast, the most recent EIA report for the week ending February 13, 2026, showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels, pointing to much stronger demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ agreed in December 2025 to hold production levels steady through the first quarter of this year, removing the threat of additional supply. These factors create a fundamentally stronger backdrop for oil prices than we saw a year ago.<\/p>\n
From a technical perspective, this time in 2025 saw WTI fighting to reclaim its 200-day moving average near $62.43. The price action was choppy and uncertain, suggesting a market in consolidation. It was a pivotal moment where momentum could have broken in either direction.<\/p>\n
Now, the chart shows a much clearer bullish trend, with WTI currently trading near $84.50, well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Last year’s consolidation near $62 served as a base for the strong uptrend we have experienced since. The current technical picture is one of strength and established positive momentum.<\/p>\n
Given that fundamentals now show tighter supply and technicals confirm a strong uptrend, we believe traders should position for further gains. Buying call options or establishing bull call spreads for April or May expiration offers a defined-risk way to capitalize on potential moves toward the $90 handle. This strategy takes advantage of the current bullish momentum.<\/p>\n
However, the persistent risk of geopolitical headlines means volatility can re-emerge quickly. We would advise using this strength to also consider protective strategies, such as purchasing out-of-the-money put options. This can hedge long positions against any sudden, unexpected downturns caused by a breakdown in diplomacy or new regional conflict.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US-Iran nuclear talks showed progress, but disputes persist; Hormuz drills lifted WTI despite rising inventories.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}