RBA minutes said the latest rate rise was needed, while future moves will depend on incoming data and risk trends. The cash rate is 3.60%, and markets price about a 70% chance of another rise in May. <\/p>\n
Australia\u2019s Q4 Wage Price Index is due on Wednesday, followed by January jobs data on Thursday. Forecasts are 20K jobs added versus 65.2K before, participation at 66.8%, and unemployment at 4.2%, with preliminary February S&P Global PMI also due. <\/p>\n
The Fed releases January minutes on Wednesday after a 10\u20132 vote kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with two votes favouring an immediate cut. US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey follow on Thursday, then Friday brings Q4 GDP (3.0% forecast versus 4.4% prior), core PCE (0.3% m\/m forecast), and final February UoM sentiment. <\/p>\n
AUD\/USD opened at 0.70754, ranged between 0.70901 and 0.70283, and closed at 0.70824, down 0.10%. It sits above the 50-day EMA at 0.68497 and the 200-day EMA at 0.66344, below the 0.71473 high but above the 0.66636 January low. <\/p>\n
Stochastic (14,5,5) shows %K 77.27 and %D 83.79, with key levels at support 0.70283 then 0.7000, and resistance 0.7100 then 0.71473 and 0.7200. The AUD is also influenced by RBA policy, Australia\u2019s 2\u20133% inflation goal, China\u2019s demand, iron ore exports worth $118 billion in 2021, and the trade balance. <\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank of Australia is holding its policy steady for now, with an eye on incoming data to guide its next move. With the cash rate at 3.10%, the market is watching to see if cooling inflation allows for further cuts later in the year. We saw in the final quarter of 2025 that annual inflation eased to 3.5%, a significant drop from the highs experienced in previous years. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is maintaining a higher interest rate, creating a yield advantage for the US dollar. This rate difference is putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Traders are now focused on upcoming US inflation and employment figures to see if the Fed’s stance will soften. <\/p>\n
Technically, the AUD\/USD is in a clear downtrend, trading near 0.6550, which is well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range, finding support around the 0.6500 psychological level. Any rallies have been consistently failing to break above the 0.6620 resistance area. <\/p>\n
A key factor weighing on the Aussie dollar is the health of the Chinese economy, which has shown signs of a slowdown. Recent industrial production figures from China were weaker than expected, reducing demand for Australian exports. This has directly impacted the price of iron ore, Australia\u2019s biggest export, which has fallen to around $110 per tonne. <\/p>\n
The decline in commodity prices is also affecting Australia\u2019s trade balance, which has seen its surplus narrow in recent months. This, combined with a general “risk-off” sentiment in global markets, where investors prefer safer assets, is creating headwinds for the AUD. A strong US economy and a cautious China are making traders hesitant to buy riskier currencies. <\/p>\n
Given this backdrop, traders should consider strategies that benefit from range-bound price action or further weakness in the AUD\/USD. Buying put options could offer downside protection, while selling call options with a strike price near the 0.6620 resistance level could be a way to generate income if the pair remains stuck. Upcoming Australian employment and US price index data will be critical catalysts for the next significant move.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" RBA signals data-dependent tightening; Aussie jobs, wages ahead. Fed minutes due. AUD\/USD steady above key averages.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}