ING expects the National Bank of Romania to keep its policy rate at 6.50%. Inflation is still high and was reported as slightly below 10% after some tax rises, with easing projected for mid-year.<\/p>\n
The central bank has held rates since August 2024, following market volatility after the presidential election. New forecast and inflation report updates are due at this meeting, alongside recent GDP figures linked to fiscal consolidation.<\/p>\n
A first rate cut is expected in May. Total easing is projected at 100bp in 2026.<\/p>\n
EUR\/RON is expected to remain broadly stable in the 5.09\u20135.10 range. A modest rise is forecast later in the year, with a year-end level of 5.150.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the analysis from early 2025, the view that the National Bank of Romania would start cutting rates proved correct, though the cycle began in June rather than May. The forecast for EUR\/RON stability around 5.09 held through the first half of the year before the pair began its slow climb. We are now seeing the pair trading higher than the 5.15 year-end 2025 target, currently hovering near 5.18.<\/p>\n
The key factor for us now is that the disinflationary trend has accelerated significantly, with the latest CPI data for January 2026 showing inflation at just 4.8%. This is well below the levels from last year and provides the NBR with substantial room to ease policy further from the current key rate of 5.50%. With Q4 2025 GDP growth coming in at a sluggish 1.2% year-over-year, the case for more aggressive rate cuts in the coming months is very strong.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this outlook suggests positioning for continued RON weakness against the euro. We see value in buying near-term EUR\/RON call options, targeting a move towards the 5.20-5.22 range in the next one to two months. This strategy allows traders to capitalize on the expected monetary policy divergence with a limited and defined risk.<\/p>\n
While the central bank has historically managed the exchange rate to prevent excessive volatility, the weakening economic fundamentals will make it difficult to fight the market trend. Looking back to the market instability following the 2024 elections, we know the NBR will prioritize stability, but we believe they will ultimately guide the exchange rate weaker. Therefore, implied volatility may be underpriced, making long volatility strategies like straddles a consideration for those anticipating a sharper move around the next NBR meeting.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ING expects Romania\u2019s central bank to hold 6.50%, as inflation stays near 10% before easing mid-year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42079"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42079\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}