EUR\/USD fell on Monday and moved towards 1.1850 ahead of the US session. Trading stayed within the recent range as market activity remained low.<\/p>\n
Eurozone Industrial Production dropped 1.4% in December. November was revised to 0.3% growth from 0.7%.<\/p>\n
Year-on-year output rose 1.2% in December versus a 1.3% forecast. November\u2019s annual growth was 2.2%.<\/p>\n
The pair stayed range-bound after softer US CPI data on Friday. Markets were closed in many Asian centres for Lunar New Year, and US markets were shut for President\u2019s Day.<\/p>\n
Later, markets were set to watch remarks from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and ECB Governor Joachim Nagel. The week ahead was described as heavy on data.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, EUR\/USD tested an upward trendline support near 1.1855. Another support level was the 11 February low at 1.1833.<\/p>\n
MACD was slightly below zero and RSI was below 50, pointing to weaker momentum. A break under 1.1833 could open a move to 1.1775, while resistance levels were 1.1890 and 1.1925.<\/p>\n
We remember seeing similar setups back in 2025, when the Euro struggled to hold the 1.1850 level against the dollar. That price now seems like a distant memory, as the pair currently trades much lower, hovering around the 1.06 handle. The underlying bearish sentiment described then has only intensified over the past year.<\/p>\n
The economic divergence has become much clearer since that time. Recent data from late 2025 showed Eurozone industrial production contracting by another 0.5% in December, while the latest US jobs report for January 2026 added a robust 215,000 positions. This confirms a trend of European weakness versus American resilience, putting sustained pressure on the common currency.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests that bearish positions remain favorable. Buying puts on the EUR\/USD with strike prices near 1.05 could be a direct way to position for a break of the recent lows in the coming weeks. The persistent low volatility also makes long-dated options relatively cheap, offering a good risk-to-reward ratio.<\/p>\n
Looking back further, we saw the EUR\/USD break below parity in 2022 amid the energy crisis, a move driven by a similar gap in economic outlooks. That historical precedent shows that a fundamentally driven trend can push the pair significantly lower than many expect. Therefore, structuring trades that profit from a move towards 1.04 or even lower is a logical response to the current environment.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD edged toward 1.1850 on low activity; Eurozone output fell, momentum weak; key Fed\/ECB remarks awaited.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}