EUR\/JPY rose above 182.00 on Monday as the Euro gained against a softer Japanese Yen. The move followed weaker Japanese GDP data, while markets awaited Eurozone Industrial Production figures due later the same day.<\/p>\n
Eurozone Industrial Production is forecast to fall 1.5% in December, after a 0.7% rise in November. The year-on-year rate is expected to slow to 1.2%, down from 2.5% in November.<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s Q4 preliminary GDP showed 0.1% quarterly growth versus a 0.4% forecast. On an annualised basis it rose 0.2%, compared with a 1.6% consensus.<\/p>\n
In the previous quarter, Japan\u2019s economy contracted 0.7%, and fell 2.6% year-on-year. The latest data has raised doubts about a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in March.<\/p>\n
A meeting took place on Monday between Prime Minister Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. Ueda said the discussion covered general economic and financial conditions, and said there was no request about interest rates.<\/p>\n
Looking back a year ago, in February 2025, we saw the EUR\/JPY cross push above 182.00. This was driven by a surprisingly weak Japanese Q4 GDP report that cast doubt on a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. At the same time, the market was anticipating Eurozone industrial production data that was also expected to show weakness.<\/p>\n
The situation today presents a different dynamic for the Yen. Japan\u2019s most recent national Core CPI for January 2026 was released last week and came in at 2.6%, holding firm above the Bank of Japan’s target for several consecutive months. This persistent inflation is solidifying the market’s belief that policy normalization is not a matter of if, but when, providing underlying support for the JPY.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s economic picture remains fragile, contrasting with the sentiment from early 2025. The latest flash manufacturing PMI for February 2026 registered at 46.1, remaining in contractionary territory and signaling ongoing industrial weakness. This sluggishness keeps the European Central Bank in a cautious position, limiting the Euro’s upside potential against other currencies.<\/p>\n
Given this growing policy divergence, traders should consider positioning for a potential downturn in the EUR\/JPY pair. Purchasing put options with strike prices below the current market level could be an effective strategy to capitalize on Yen strength and Euro weakness. A bear put spread might also be considered to reduce the initial premium cost while targeting a moderate move lower over the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
We must also be aware of rising implied volatility in this currency pair, which has ticked up nearly 15% since the start of the year. This suggests the market is pricing in larger price swings ahead of upcoming central bank meetings. Therefore, executing strategies sooner rather than later could be advantageous before option premiums become more expensive.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY climbed above 182.00 as weak Japan GDP weighed on Yen; markets awaited Eurozone production data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41978\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}