EUR\/USD traded near 1.1865 on Monday and was little changed. This followed weak Eurozone industrial production data and low market activity.<\/p>\n
Eurozone Industrial Production fell 1.4% in December, against a 1.5% expected decline. November was revised to 0.3% growth from 0.7%.<\/p>\n
Year on year, production rose 1.2%, compared with 1.3% expected and 2.5% in November. The pair stayed within its recent range.<\/p>\n
Trading was quiet as many Asian markets, including Japan, were shut for the Lunar New Year. US markets were also closed for President\u2019s Day.<\/p>\n
Later, speeches were due from Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and ECB Governor Joachim Nagel. These events were scheduled ahead of a busier data week.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, EUR\/USD held above a rising trendline near 1.1855, with added support at 1.1833. MACD was just below zero and RSI was just under 50.<\/p>\n
A break below 1.1833 would bring 1.1775 into view. Resistance was noted at 1.1890 and then 1.1925.<\/p>\n
Looking back at this time last year, in February 2025, we saw EUR\/USD holding steady around 1.1865 even as Eurozone factory output was weak. The market was very quiet then, partly due to holidays in the US and Asia. That period of low volatility feels very different from the market we are trading in today.<\/p>\n
The underlying economic weakness in the Eurozone, which we saw in the December 2024 data released then, has unfortunately continued. The latest figures for December 2025 show Eurozone industrial production fell by a concerning 0.7% month-on-month, according to Eurostat. This persistent sluggishness helps explain why the pair is struggling to stay above 1.09 now, a significant drop from the levels we were analyzing a year ago.<\/p>\n
In early 2025, our focus was on softer US CPI figures that allowed the Federal Reserve to consider easing policy. Now in February 2026, the situation has flipped, with US inflation proving stubborn at a 2.9% annual rate last month, keeping the Fed on hold. This policy divergence with the European Central Bank, which is signalling more openness to rate cuts, continues to weigh heavily on the euro.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment suggests a different approach than last year’s range-bound market. With key inflation and employment data due from both regions in the coming weeks, buying straddles on EUR\/USD could be a viable strategy to profit from a potential spike in volatility, regardless of the direction. Implied volatility is currently trading near 8.2%, notably higher than the sub-6% levels seen during the quiet period in February 2025, indicating the market is pricing in bigger moves.<\/p>\n
The technical picture has also deteriorated significantly over the past year. The support level we watched at 1.1833 in February 2025 is now a distant memory and would be considered major resistance. The key battleground today is the 1.0850 level, and a decisive break below it could trigger further selling pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD hovered near 1.1865 amid weak Eurozone output and holiday-thinned trading; support held, key events awaited.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41963\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}