USD\/JPY rose on Monday after Japan\u2019s weak Q4 GDP data weighed on the yen. A modest US dollar uptick and a positive risk tone helped the pair rebound from a over two-week low seen last Thursday.<\/p>\n
The pair held above the rising 200-day exponential moving average at 152.54. It also bounced near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 to January 2026 move, at 152.11.<\/p>\n
Policy outlook differences between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve limited further gains. The mixed technical picture also pointed to caution.<\/p>\n
The MACD line stayed below the signal line, with both below zero, and the negative histogram widened. The RSI was 38, below the midline, which suggested weaker upward pressure.<\/p>\n
Resistance was noted near the 23.6% retracement at 154.96. A daily close below 152.11 would allow a deeper pullback, while a break above 154.96 could support further gains.<\/p>\n
Given Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2025, the rebound in USD\/JPY from below 152.50 makes sense. This weak data undermines the Japanese Yen, as it pushes back any expectation of the Bank of Japan tightening its monetary policy soon. We see this as the primary reason for the pair’s resilience at the start of the week.<\/p>\n
This contrasts sharply with the situation in the United States, where the latest inflation data for January 2026 came in at 3.2%, slightly above forecasts. This persistent inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance, strengthening the US Dollar. This policy divergence is creating a ceiling for the currency pair, capping the recent recovery.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this push-and-pull creates an opportunity in range-bound strategies. With strong support around 152.11 and firm resistance near 154.96, selling an iron condor with strikes outside this range could be a viable strategy to collect premium. This approach benefits from the pair remaining between these key technical levels in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
We are also watching the 200-day moving average near 152.54, which has held up as solid support during the pullback from the January 2026 highs. Selling put options with a strike price around 152.00 could be a way to gain bullish exposure while generating income. This strategy is profitable if the pair stays above this critical long-term support zone.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the negative momentum indicators, like the MACD, suggest sellers are still present. A decisive break below the 152.11 support could trigger a faster decline, making long put positions attractive for a downside play. Any sustained move above the 154.96 resistance, however, would signal that the uptrend we saw for most of 2025 is resuming, favoring strategies like buying call options.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY rebounds on weak Japan GDP, holding key support; caution persists as indicators bearish, resistance tests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17050"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}