WTI traded near $62.80 per barrel in Asian hours on Monday, after opening above the previous close and edging lower. US markets were shut for Presidents\u2019 Day, and Asian trading was quieter as China, South Korea and Taiwan marked Lunar New Year holidays.<\/p>\n
A second round of US-Iran talks is due in Geneva on Tuesday, with Tehran indicating it may offer nuclear concessions if US sanctions are addressed. The US has warned of possible strikes if talks fail, while raising its military presence in the region.<\/p>\n
US-backed Russia-Ukraine talks are also set to resume on Tuesday, with limited expectations of a quick outcome or near-term flows of Russian oil to global markets. Slovakia\u2019s Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Sunday that Ukraine is delaying the restart of a pipeline carrying Russian oil to Eastern Europe via its territory.<\/p>\n
Supply conditions also weighed on prices, with Reuters reporting that OPEC+ is leaning towards restarting output increases from April after a three-month pause, ahead of peak summer demand. OPEC has 12 member countries and sets production quotas at twice-yearly meetings.<\/p>\n
WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is a US-sourced crude benchmark traded via the Cushing hub. Inventory reports from API and EIA can affect prices; their results fall within 1% of each other 75% of the time.<\/p>\n
With WTI crude oil holding near $63 a barrel, the current quiet market presents an opportunity to position for a significant price move. Major geopolitical talks involving the US, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine are scheduled for this Tuesday, February 17th, creating a clear catalyst for volatility. We see this as a period to prepare for a breakout rather than to bet on sideways trading.<\/p>\n
Given the binary nature of the upcoming diplomatic meetings, we should be looking at options strategies that benefit from a sharp price swing. Implied volatility for March WTI options has already risen to 38%, reflecting market nervousness over a potential failure in US-Iran negotiations. We believe traders should consider straddles or strangles to profit from a large move in either direction, regardless of the outcome.<\/p>\n
On the supply side, the argument for a price drop is building, which supports buying puts as a hedge or a speculative bet. The latest EIA report showed a surprise inventory build of 2.3 million barrels last week, and we are now hearing that OPEC+ is likely to approve an output increase from April. This potential for more supply could quickly push prices back toward the low $60s if geopolitical tensions ease.<\/p>\n
However, we must not discount the considerable upside risk if these talks falter. We remember the price spike to over $70 in the third quarter of 2025 when a previous round of Iran negotiations broke down unexpectedly. A repeat of that scenario, especially with warnings of possible military action, would make call options or bull call spreads very profitable.<\/p>\n
The market’s caution is also reflected in recent positioning data from the CFTC, which showed money managers reducing their net-long exposure for the second straight week. While the Russia-Ukraine pipeline issue adds another layer of uncertainty, the primary focus remains on the US-Iran meeting in Geneva. We expect the market’s holding pattern to break violently once the outcome of that discussion becomes clear.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI hovered near $62.80 as holiday-thinned trade watched US-Iran talks, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and OPEC+ supply plans.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41956\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}