EUR\/USD edged lower in Asian trading on Monday, near 1.1870. The 14-day RSI is 56, above 50, after easing from overbought levels.<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, the pair is holding above the nine-day EMA, with a positive slope. The nine-day EMA is above the rising 50-day EMA, with the nine-day level at 1.1861.<\/p>\n
If price holds above 1.1861, EUR\/USD could move towards 1.2082. This is the highest level since June 2021.<\/p>\n
A move below the nine-day EMA may direct the pair towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1769. Further support sits at 1.1578, a two-month low set on 19 January.<\/p>\n
The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool.<\/p>\n
We see the EUR\/USD is testing a critical support level at the nine-day EMA near 1.1861. With the RSI indicator holding firm above 50, the underlying momentum suggests that any dips are likely to be short-lived. This presents a clear decision point for our strategies in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Given this technical setup, we should consider buying call options with a strike price below the 1.2082 target if the pair holds above 1.1861 on a daily closing basis. This view is reinforced by recent Eurozone data showing January’s headline inflation holding stubbornly at 2.9%, prompting more hawkish comments from ECB officials last week. The market is now pricing in a higher probability of the ECB being slower to cut rates than the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
However, if we see a confirmed break and close below the 1.1861 level, we must be prepared to shift our bias quickly. In that scenario, purchasing put options targeting the 50-day EMA at 1.1769 would be a prudent move to hedge or speculate on further downside. This defensive posture would be necessary as a break of short-term support could signal a deeper correction.<\/p>\n
This situation feels similar to the price action we observed in the fourth quarter of 2025, where a consolidation period above the moving averages preceded a strong directional move. The divergence in economic data, with last week’s US retail sales showing a slight slowdown, further supports potential dollar weakness against the euro. Therefore, we should watch the 1.1861 level as the primary trigger for our next derivatives play.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD slips near 1.1870; RSI stays bullish. Support at 1.1861; resistance 1.2082, downside 1.1769.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41938\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}