NZD\/USD traded around 0.6040 in Asian hours on Monday, after modest gains in the prior session. It held up after New Zealand\u2019s Business NZ Performance of Services Index fell to 50.9 in January from 51.7.<\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand\u2019s monetary conditions survey showed higher inflation expectations for Q1 2026. Two-year expectations rose to 2.37% from 2.28%, and one-year expectations increased to 2.59% from 2.39%.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar eased after January CPI data came in softer than forecast. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year on year, down from 2.7% and below the 2.5% forecast, while monthly CPI slowed to 0.2% from 0.3%.<\/p>\n
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said rates are likely to move lower, but future easing depends on services inflation data. CME FedWatch showed a nearly 90% chance of no change in March, up from 81% a week earlier, with about two 25-basis-point cuts priced by year-end and the first in June at around 52%.<\/p>\n
NZD moves with New Zealand data, RBNZ policy, China-related demand, and dairy prices. It also tends to rise in risk-on conditions and fall in risk-off periods.<\/p>\n
We are looking at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation expectations survey from last month, which showed a notable increase for the two-year outlook to 2.37%. This hawkish signal was reinforced when we saw the Q4 2025 unemployment figures released two weeks ago hold steady at a tight 3.9%. These data points suggest the RBNZ has little room to consider easing policy anytime soon.<\/p>\n
On the other side of the pair, the US inflation data from January showed a cooldown to 2.4%, which has already shifted market sentiment. This view was further solidified by the soft US retail sales numbers for January that we saw last week, hinting at a slowing consumer. The probability of a first Fed rate cut in June is now sitting above 60%, a noticeable increase from the 52% chance priced in just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n
Beyond central bank policy, we are also seeing supportive external factors for the Kiwi. China’s latest manufacturing PMI for January nudged back into expansionary territory at 50.5, easing concerns about demand from New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Furthermore, the Global Dairy Trade auction in early February posted another solid 2.5% price increase, which directly benefits New Zealand’s export income.<\/p>\n
Given this divergence, we believe positioning for NZD\/USD upside is the logical response over the coming weeks. Traders could consider buying call options with a June expiry to capture the potential move, or structuring bull call spreads to reduce the initial cost. Looking back at 2025, a break above the 0.6150 resistance level could open up a path toward the highs we saw in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZD\/USD hovers near 0.6040 as softer US CPI offsets weak NZ services data, higher RBNZ inflation expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41917\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}