Standard Chartered raised its Taiwan 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% from 3.8%, after Q4-2025 GDP growth of 12.7% year on year and full-year 2025 growth of 8.7%. Q4-2025 quarter-on-quarter growth was 5.4%, and the bank expects some statistical payback in Q1-2026. <\/p>\n
The outlook is linked to global semiconductor demand and stronger exports of ICT goods and electronic components. Exports rose 70% year on year in January, ahead of Lunar New Year holidays in February, after 49.4% growth in Q4-2025. <\/p>\n
A recent US trade deal is expected to ease conditions for exporters. The US accounted for 30% of Taiwan\u2019s exports. <\/p>\n
The bank expects growth to remain uneven and household income disparity to widen. It also expects the central bank (CBC) to keep selective credit controls aimed at limiting property-related borrowing. <\/p>\n
With the 2026 GDP growth forecast now at a remarkable 8.0%, our primary view is to be bullish on Taiwanese equities. The TAIEX index has already surpassed the 25,000 milestone this past week, fueled by the tech export data from last quarter in 2025. Buying call options on the index or major technology ETFs is the most direct way to gain exposure to this momentum. <\/p>\n
The reported 70% year-on-year surge in January exports provides a strong tailwind for the New Taiwan Dollar. We have seen the currency strengthen to a 15-month high, trading below 29.5 to the US dollar. Derivative traders should look at long positions in TWD futures, as continued demand for Taiwanese goods will likely drive further appreciation. <\/p>\n
This growth is intensely focused on the AI and semiconductor upcycle, as evidenced by the ICT shipment data. A more targeted strategy would involve looking at options on industry giants like TSMC, whose shares are already up over 20% since the start of the year. We can use bull call spreads to bet on continued outperformance in this specific sector while managing premium costs. <\/p>\n
However, we must consider the warning of a “statistical payback” after the super-charged growth we saw in late 2025. This kind of parabolic run often invites increased volatility and the possibility of a sharp, albeit brief, correction. Hedging long positions with some short-dated put options could protect against a sudden pullback in the coming weeks. <\/p>\n
The central bank’s focus on selective credit controls, rather than immediate interest rate hikes, suggests it wants to cool the property market without harming the export engine. This implies that financial and real estate-linked equities may underperform the broader market. We should therefore remain underweight in derivative positions tied to these domestic-facing sectors.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Standard Chartered lifts Taiwan 2026 GDP forecast to 8% on robust exports, semiconductor demand, uneven growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16987,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}