USD\/CAD rose for a third day and reached a four-day high near 1.3630 in early European trading. The move followed a rebound from the 1.3500 level and came as the US dollar edged higher.<\/p>\n
The US dollar stayed mildly firmer after Wednesday\u2019s Nonfarm Payrolls report reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. Lower crude oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar, supporting USD\/CAD ahead of US consumer inflation data.<\/p>\n
The 100-hour simple moving average is falling at 1.3576, but price remains above it. The RSI is 68, near overbought, and resistance is noted at 1.3641, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of last week\u2019s drop.<\/p>\n
Further resistance sits at 1.3678, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The MACD is near the zero line with a flat histogram; a break higher could target 1.3700, while a move below 1.3576 would reduce upside bias.<\/p>\n
The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.<\/p>\n
We are seeing the USD\/CAD pair build on its recent rebound from the 1.3500 mark, pushing into the mid-1.3600s this Friday. This upward move is being driven by a combination of a stronger US Dollar and a weaker Canadian loonie. The primary factors at play are divergent economic outlooks and falling oil prices.<\/p>\n
The strength in the US Dollar comes after the January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a robust addition of 215,000 jobs, crushing expectations and tempering any hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. At the same time, WTI crude oil prices have dipped below $70 a barrel amid concerns over slowing global demand, directly weighing on the commodity-linked Canadian currency. This is a dynamic we saw play out in the second half of 2025, where strong US economic data consistently postponed rate cut expectations and fueled USD strength.<\/p>\n
From a derivatives standpoint, this sets up a clear opportunity ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A higher-than-expected inflation reading would likely solidify the Fed\u2019s hawkish stance and could propel USD\/CAD through initial resistance at 1.3641. Traders could consider buying near-term call options with a strike price around 1.3650, positioning for a potential rally towards the 1.3700 level.<\/p>\n
The technical setup supports this bullish view, with the price holding above the key 100-hour moving average near 1.3576. This level should be watched closely as a potential area to manage risk on any long positions. A break below this support would signal that the immediate upward pressure is fading, suggesting a more neutral stance may be warranted.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD hit 1.3630 as stronger USD, lower oil, and Fed-cut hopes fading lifted prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}