NZD\/USD traded around 0.6050\u20130.6057, near a two-week high of 0.6057. Markets are focused on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\u2019s February 18 statement and shifts in RBNZ or Federal Reserve rate expectations.<\/p>\n
The RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% after 325 basis points of cuts since August 2024. New Zealand data showed unemployment at 5.4% and employment growth at 0.5% versus a 0.3% forecast, with markets pricing a 75% chance of a rate rise by September.<\/p>\n
In the US, January Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 130K, which pushed expected Fed rate cuts from June to July. January CPI is due, with forecasts of 0.29% month-on-month for headline CPI and 0.39% for core CPI.<\/p>\n
Technically, the pair held above 0.6000 after a February 6 low of 0.5937 and traded near a 0.6050 pivot. Resistance is near 0.6100, RSI is around 55, and the 50-day SMA is near 0.5950 with the 200-day SMA lower.<\/p>\n
On the 1-hour chart, it ranged between 0.6030 and 0.6060. A break above 0.6100 targets 0.6120\u20130.6150, while a move below 0.6000 may open 0.5950.<\/p>\n
Given the NZD\/USD is coiled in a tight range around 0.6050, the immediate focus should be on today’s US CPI release. We see this as a binary event, making short-dated options strategies like straddles or strangles attractive to play a potential spike in volatility. A tamer-than-expected inflation print could be the catalyst that breaks the pair above the recent consolidation zone.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead to next week’s RBNZ meeting on February 18, the key will be the central bank’s forward guidance. While a rate hold at 2.25% is priced in, any language reinforcing the market’s 75% odds of a September hike would be bullish for the Kiwi. We believe traders should consider buying March call options with a strike price above 0.6100 to position for a hawkish surprise.<\/p>\n
The fundamental backdrop is slowly turning in the Kiwi’s favor, a notable shift from what we saw for most of 2025. A continued firming in the Global Dairy Trade index, which has been recovering from last year’s lows, would provide a strong tailwind for New Zealand’s terms of trade. This supports the view that the RBNZ has completed its easing cycle ahead of the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
The primary medium-term trade is the monetary policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed. With the Fed not expected to begin cutting rates until July, while the RBNZ is looking towards hikes, there is a clear path for NZD\/USD strength later this year. Using call spreads that expire in the third quarter allows us to position for this theme with a defined risk profile.<\/p>\n
However, we must respect the technical resistance at 0.6100 and the decade-high unemployment rate of 5.4%, a level we haven’t seen since the 2014-2015 period. This weak labor market could temper the RBNZ’s hawkishness and cap the Kiwi’s upside in the near term. Therefore, any bullish derivative positions should be structured to manage risk in case the pair fails at resistance and returns to the 0.6000 support level.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZD\/USD nears two-week high ahead of RBNZ statement, with shifting Fed expectations and key technical levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17000,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41774\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}