EUR\/USD edged up to 1.1880 on Thursday from Wednesday\u2019s low of 1.1833, staying within recent ranges. The earlier support for the US Dollar eased after the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.<\/p>\n
The delayed January NFP showed 130K new jobs versus a 70K forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Healthcare made up nearly two-thirds of January payroll growth, and there was a sharp downward revision to 2025 figures.<\/p>\n
Markets reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve cuts after the NFP data. The implied chance of a March cut fell to 5% from 20%, and April dropped to 20% from above 40%, while June is priced at about 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>\n
Traders are watching US Initial Jobless Claims and Home Sales data, with attention also on Friday\u2019s Consumer Price Index. Later on Thursday, European Central Bank officials Philip Lane and Joachim Nagel are scheduled to speak.<\/p>\n
Initial Jobless Claims measure first-time filings for unemployment insurance, where higher claims can weigh on the US Dollar and lower claims can support it. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) tracks housing activity, where stronger readings tend to support the Dollar and weaker readings can pressure it.<\/p>\n
We’re seeing the EUR\/USD struggle for direction, hovering around 1.1880 after the recent US jobs report. While the headline number was strong, the details, like the heavy concentration in one sector and downward revisions to figures from 2025, have given us pause. This mixed signal is why the initial dollar strength faded.<\/p>\n
The odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have collapsed to just 5%, a dramatic shift from a few weeks ago. This repricing is reminiscent of what we saw back in late 2023, when markets had to quickly scale back aggressive easing bets following resilient economic data. For now, June seems to be the earliest the market is seriously considering a cut, with Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair.<\/p>\n
This uncertainty is an ideal environment for using options to trade the range. With the VIX index currently holding around a moderate 15, selling strangles on EUR\/USD could be profitable if the pair remains stuck before the next big move. However, Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the main event that could trigger a breakout from this pattern.<\/p>\n
We shouldn’t forget the European side of this equation, as ECB officials like Lane and Nagel are reinforcing a steady-for-longer policy stance. This provides a solid floor for the Euro, preventing a significant drop even as US data comes in strong. It\u2019s this policy divergence, or lack thereof, that is keeping the pair tightly coiled.<\/p>\n
While we await the CPI, today’s Initial Jobless Claims will be a key health check for the labor market. Claims have been trending below the 220,000 mark for months, and a continuation of that trend would reinforce the dollar’s strength. Similarly, a surprise in Existing Home Sales could sway sentiment, as the housing market has been highly sensitive to rate expectations throughout the past year.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD rose to 1.1880 as strong NFP tempered Fed-cut odds; traders eye claims, home sales, CPI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41705"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41705\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}