Gold stayed near its daily low in early European trading on Thursday but remained above $5,050. It was close to a near two-week low set the day before.<\/p>\n
A stronger US Nonfarm Payrolls report reduced expectations of faster Federal Reserve rate cuts. January job gains were 130K versus a revised 48K previously and 70K expected.<\/p>\n
The Unemployment Rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings held at 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast. CME FedWatch showed markets pricing a 95% chance of no March rate change, up from 80% the prior day.<\/p>\n
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the labour market is reaching balance and policy is near neutral, with rates best held steady to reach 2% inflation. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned further rate cuts could keep inflation higher for longer.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar rose after the data but lacked firm momentum as markets still expect two 25 bps cuts this year, with the first in July. Focus turns to US consumer inflation on Friday and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Technicals were mixed: MACD histogram 0.17, RSI 55.65, and the 200-period 4-hour SMA at $4,757.23. Price levels include $5,004.47 (50% retracement), $5,144.94 (61.8% resistance), plus 5,599.68 high and 4,409.26 low.<\/p>\n
We’ve seen the strong jobs report from yesterday significantly change the odds of a March rate cut, with the market now pricing it as a near certainty that the Fed will hold steady. This puts gold in a tough spot, caught between hawkish short-term data and the underlying expectation that two rate cuts are still coming later this year. The price is now consolidating above the key psychological level of $5,000.<\/p>\n
This situation feels very similar to what we experienced in early 2025, when a couple of stubborn inflation reports pushed the Fed’s first anticipated rate cut from March to June. With current wage growth at 3.7% still running hotter than the last reported CPI inflation of 2.9% for December 2025, the central bank has a clear reason to be patient. This suggests the Fed will wait for more data before signaling any imminent cuts.<\/p>\n
Given that gold seems contained between the $5,004 support and $5,144 resistance, the immediate play is to trade this range. Options strategies that profit from low volatility, like selling strangles, could be effective in the very short term. This capitalizes on the market holding its breath before the next major data release.<\/p>\n
The real move will likely come after the US consumer inflation figures are released tomorrow. This report will be the most important catalyst, as it will either confirm the Fed’s cautious stance or reignite hopes for a more aggressive easing cycle. Traders should be prepared for a spike in volatility and a potential breakout from the current range.<\/p>\n
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, we could see gold break below the $5,004 support level as the market pushes rate cut expectations even further out. On the other hand, a soft inflation print would validate the idea of a July cut and could provide the fuel needed to push the price decisively through the $5,144 resistance. This binary event is what everyone is positioning for right now.<\/p>\n
Even with this uncertainty, the underlying trend remains positive as long as the price holds above the 200-period moving average around $4,757. The long-term expectation of eventual rate cuts and concerns over central bank policy should continue to act as a tailwind. For this reason, any significant price drops following the inflation data could be viewed as potential buying opportunities.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold steadied above $5,050 after strong US jobs data reduced Fed cut hopes; attention shifts to inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16982,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}