{"id":41667,"date":"2026-02-12T16:26:26","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T08:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=41667"},"modified":"2026-02-12T16:26:26","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T08:26:26","slug":"dollar-index-firms-after-strong-payrolls-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-index-firms-after-strong-payrolls-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Index Firms After Strong Payrolls Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/usd5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16972\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls jumped 130,000 in January, biggest gain in over a year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment fell to 4.3%, prompting traders to shift rate cut bets to July.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> steadied at <strong>96.786<\/strong> on Thursday, posting a marginal 0.010 (0.01%) rise after rebounding from recent lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move follows heightened volatility earlier in the week and came after stronger-than-expected US labour market data reduced the urgency for Federal Reserve rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January\u2019s <strong>nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000<\/strong>, beating consensus and marking the largest monthly gain since 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The already notably low US job gains in 2025 were slashed by new revisions from the BLS.<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mWrV6HqMmQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/mWrV6HqMmQ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sxpoCCVGr8\">pic.twitter.com\/sxpoCCVGr8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2021790405910565116?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 12, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kFkiSxgylK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%<\/a><\/strong>, surprising markets that had expected a flat reading at 4.4%. The data suggests a stabilising labour market and a US economy that remains resilient despite tighter monetary conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In response, <strong>Treasury yields climbed<\/strong>, reinforcing the Fed\u2019s current position to hold rates steady. Market pricing now implies a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/40WVb74TTk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">July start to easing<\/a><\/strong>, pushed back from June, with total rate cuts forecast at <strong>50 basis points<\/strong> by year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Snapshot: Bottoming Pattern Emerging<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> is currently trading around <strong>96.786<\/strong>, showing minimal change from the previous session (<strong>+0.010 \/ +0.01%<\/strong>), reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode after last week\u2019s volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows a mild recovery from the recent low of <strong>95.339<\/strong>, but upside momentum appears constrained, with price now hovering just beneath the <strong>short-term moving averages<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-16-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41668\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MA5 (96.901)<\/strong> and <strong>MA10 (97.137)<\/strong> have started to flatten slightly, suggesting an attempt at consolidation, but the index remains capped below the <strong>MA20 (97.305)<\/strong> and <strong>MA30 (97.735)<\/strong>, which are still angled downward\u2014indicating that the broader bias remains bearish unless broken decisively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a structural perspective, the index is attempting to carve out a <strong>base around the 95.3\u201396.0 zone<\/strong>, a key support area where buyers previously stepped in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A close above <strong>97.30\u201397.50<\/strong> would signal a more convincing reversal and likely target the next resistance near <strong>99.27\u201399.80<\/strong>. On the flip side, failure to hold above <strong>96.30<\/strong> could reopen the path toward a retest of <strong>95.339<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Eyes on Inflation Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With jobs data out of the way, traders are now focused on the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/news_release\/cpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">January CPI report<\/a> due Friday<\/strong>, which could reinforce or challenge the Fed\u2019s stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A hot print may further delay easing bets and give the dollar room to run, while a softer outcome would reintroduce downside risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current Fed narrative remains data-dependent. While the labour market shows strength, inflation\u2019s next trajectory will determine whether markets hold their <strong>July cut expectations<\/strong> or reprice sooner easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Indices<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a> today.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX stabilises near 97 as strong US jobs data delays Fed cut bets; CPI in focus next. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-41667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}