The NASDAQ100 has moved sideways for three to four months and is trading near its early October 2025 level. This makes Elliott Wave (EW) analysis harder, so other indicators are used alongside EW in a \u201cweight of the evidence\u201d approach.<\/p>\n
In mid-term election years, the average seasonal pattern shows a bottom on 5 February, a peak around 15 February, a mild dip near 21 February, then a rise to a 18 March high. After that, the average path trends lower until October, and the NASDAQ100 bottomed on 6 February before starting a rally.<\/p>\n
An updated EW count still points to 26608. This is based on a 161.8% extension of the 2020\u20132021 Wave-1, measured from the 2020 low (Wave-2), with the prior peak on 29 October falling about 500 points short of that extension.<\/p>\n
Wave-1 rose from 6772 to 16765 (9993 points), and Wave-2 bottomed on 13 October 2022 at 10440. The Wave-3 target is 10440 + 9992 \u00d7 1.618 = 26608, and bear warning levels are 24854, 25112, 25418, 25840, and 26182.<\/p>\n
The NASDAQ100 has been trading sideways for several months, making little progress and currently sitting at levels we first saw back in early October 2025. This lack of a clear trend makes forecasting difficult, so we must combine different methods to get a clearer picture. This stagnant price action often precedes a more significant and decisive move.<\/p>\n
We are observing that the index is closely following a typical seasonal pattern for a mid-term election year. This pattern suggested a market bottom around February 5, and indeed, we saw the low for the year on February 6. We are now in a rally that this historical model predicts will peak around February 15.<\/p>\n
This current rally has been supported by recent economic data showing core inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, easing to 2.7%, slightly below expectations. This has given the market a reason to push higher in the short term, aligning perfectly with our seasonal forecast. Looking back at similar setups, such as the market reaction to inflation news in late 2024, we saw that positive data could fuel these final upward thrusts before a larger turn.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests a very short-term bullish stance for the next few days. One could consider buying short-dated call options or implementing bull call spreads to capture a potential final move up towards the February 15-21 window. The key is to recognize this is likely the end of a move, not the beginning of a new, sustained uptrend.<\/p>\n
However, the larger opportunity appears to be on the horizon, as the seasonal pattern points to a significant decline beginning after a final high around March 18. This aligns with our broader Elliott Wave count, which anticipates a multi-month correction once this current rally pattern is complete. We believe this decline could last until October of this year.<\/p>\n
Therefore, traders should be preparing to pivot to a bearish strategy in the coming weeks. This could involve buying put options with expirations in April or May to capitalize on the start of the expected downturn. Establishing bear put spreads could also be a prudent way to position for a sustained drop while managing risk.<\/p>\n
The key levels to watch on the upside are the warning levels for bears, starting at 24854 and extending up to 26182. As the index approaches these zones, it would be wise to reduce bullish exposure and begin establishing bearish positions. The market’s reaction at these specific price points will provide critical clues about the timing of the impending reversal.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NASDAQ100 trades sideways, complicating Elliott Wave analysis; seasonal midterm-year pattern still supports 26608 target.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16985,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}