USD\/JPY fell for a third day as the Yen stayed supported after Japan\u2019s election result. The pair traded near 152.84, close to a two-week low, and is down more than 2.5% this week.<\/p>\n
Support for the Yen followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi\u2019s election victory, which reduced political uncertainty. The US Dollar struggled to hold gains after a stronger US jobs report, with the Dollar Index near 96.75 after a brief rise to 97.27.<\/p>\n
The technical view turned bearish after USD\/JPY slipped below key daily moving averages. RSI is near 35, and Average True Range (14) is about 1.38.<\/p>\n
A break below 152.00 may bring the 200-day SMA near 150.50 into focus. A move under 150.00 could point to 148.00, the 1.618 Fibonacci level.<\/p>\n
On rebounds, 153.69 (78.6% retracement) and 154.84 (61.8% retracement) are key levels, with the 100-day SMA around 154.60. A daily close above 154.84 could target the 50-day SMA at 156.27.<\/p>\n
The Yen is influenced by Japan\u2019s economy, Bank of Japan policy, Japan\u2013US bond-yield spreads, and risk sentiment. The BoJ used ultra-loose policy from 2013 to 2024, then began moving away from it in 2024.<\/p>\n
Given the yen’s strength following the recent election, our focus should be on strategies that benefit from a lower USD\/JPY. The new government’s stability suggests a more predictable policy environment, which markets clearly favor. This is a significant shift from the uncertainty we faced for much of 2025.<\/p>\n
The US dollar’s inability to rally on strong jobs data reinforces our view that the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance is the dominant factor. Last week’s US CPI data for January came in at 2.8%, missing expectations and increasing the probability of a mid-year rate cut, which is now over 70% priced in by the futures market. This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan, which is now expected to continue slowly unwinding its loose policy from the past decade.<\/p>\n
For our derivative positions, this points toward buying USD\/JPY put options. With the pair having broken below key moving averages, we see a path to the 200-day SMA near 150.50 in the coming weeks. We are looking at puts with a strike price of 152.00 as a primary target to position for this downward trend.<\/p>\n
Historically, we saw Ministry of Finance intervention drive yen strength back in late 2024, but this move feels different as it is backed by fundamental policy convergence. The widening daily price swings suggest that using put spreads could be a wise strategy. This would help manage the higher option premiums while still providing exposure to the downside.<\/p>\n
We must remain disciplined and watch the resistance levels mentioned. A daily close back above 154.84 would signal that this bearish momentum is fading and would require us to reassess our short positions. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to be lower for the currency pair.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY slid third day; yen supported by Japan election result. Pair near 152.84; bearish technicals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17051,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41628\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}