Gold (XAU\/USD) recovered from Tuesday\u2019s lows and continued an uptrend from late January, trading near resistance around $5,100. The move came as the US Dollar weakened, with markets cautious ahead of January\u2019s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.<\/p>\n
US Dollar softness followed weak US Retail Sales and lower labour costs reported on Tuesday. These data increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months.<\/p>\n
The payrolls consensus forecasts net job gains of 70K, up from December\u2019s 50K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.4%, while wage growth is forecast to moderate.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, XAU\/USD trades a few pips below February\u2019s peak at $5,100. The 100-period Simple Moving Average slopes higher, the MACD is above zero, and the RSI is at 60.<\/p>\n
A break above $5,100 would support a Gartley Pattern view, with a target near $5,340 at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late January sell-off. Support sits near $4,995, then $4,655.<\/p>\n
Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest yearly purchase on record. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can react to rates, risk sentiment, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n
Looking back to early 2025, we saw gold surge towards $5,100 on the back of weak US economic data and hopes for Fed rate cuts. Today, the picture is more complex, with gold currently consolidating around the $4,950 mark. The expectation of imminent rate cuts that fueled last year’s rally has now diminished.<\/p>\n
Unlike the weak employment figures seen this time last year, the most recent jobs report for January 2026 showed a surprising addition of 210,000 jobs. This strength, combined with recent signals from Federal Reserve officials for a “higher for longer” stance on interest rates, is creating headwinds for precious metals. A strong dollar is making gold more expensive for foreign buyers, capping its upside potential.<\/p>\n
While January’s CPI report showed a slight cooling to 2.8%, it is not enough to change the Fed’s current outlook on holding rates steady. This suggests that call options with strike prices above the $5,100 level, which seemed attainable this time last year, now carry significantly higher risk. Traders might consider buying puts or establishing bearish call spreads to hedge against a potential drop towards the $4,800 support level if the US Dollar continues to strengthen.<\/p>\n
However, the underlying demand from central banks provides a strong floor under the market, preventing a dramatic collapse. Last year, in 2025, central banks continued their strong buying trend, accumulating over 1,000 tonnes according to the World Gold Council, a pattern consistent with previous years. This persistent demand should be factored into any long-term bearish strategy.<\/p>\n
With the February jobs report and new inflation data due in the coming weeks, volatility is expected to increase. This environment is favorable for strategies like straddles or strangles, which profit from large price moves in either direction. It allows traders to capitalize on the market’s reaction to the upcoming economic reports without betting on a specific outcome.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold rebounds toward $5,100 as dollar weakens; investors await NFP, boosting Fed-cut expectations and bullish setup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16974,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41587\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}