Gold (XAU\/USD) is experiencing a recovery, trading near $4,880, after dropping to $4,655 in the Asian session. A risk-averse market mood is supporting precious metals, although the strong US Dollar is limiting gains.<\/p>\n
The recent weak US employment data has prompted some expectations for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering borrowing costs. Additionally, a sell-off on Wall Street has increased demand for safe havens like Gold.<\/p>\n
Technically, Gold is trading below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,876, though indicators suggest improving momentum. The MACD’s negative histogram is shrinking and the MACD line is approaching the signal line, with the RSI entering a neutral zone.<\/p>\n
The short-term trend remains negative, though bulls see potential with Thursday’s higher low. The Gartley pattern suggests a target towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance at $5,340, but initial resistance may occur at $4,920 and $5,100.<\/p>\n
Central banks are major Gold holders, with significant purchases in 2022 from countries like China, India, and Turkey. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and Treasuries and moves based on geopolitical instability, interest rates, and US Dollar behaviour.<\/p>\n
The market is clearly nervous following the weak employment report from earlier this week. We saw that the latest Non-Farm Payroll data for January 2026 came in at just 95,000, well below the 180,000 consensus, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.2%. This has significantly increased the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, with fed funds futures now pricing in a greater than 75% probability.<\/p>\n
This environment presents a classic push-pull for gold, which is trading near $4,880. The risk-off mood from Wall Street’s recent 4% drop is supportive, but the US Dollar’s strength is acting as a cap. Derivative traders should therefore look for strategies that can capitalize on a potential upward move while managing the immediate resistance.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a potential Gartley pattern forming on the charts, which suggests a possible rally toward the $5,340 level. Before that can happen, we need to overcome resistance first around the $4,920 mark and then at the $5,100 weekly high. The improving momentum on technical indicators gives us reason to believe these levels can be tested in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
A sensible approach would be to consider buying call options to bet on this upward potential. For instance, purchasing March or April 2026 calls with a strike price around $5,000 would offer exposure to the upside beyond near-term resistance. This strategy defines our risk to the premium paid while providing significant leverage if the target is approached.<\/p>\n
This bullish outlook is reinforced by strong underlying demand from institutional players. Central banks continued their aggressive purchasing through the end of last year, with World Gold Council data showing another 250 tonnes were added to reserves in the fourth quarter of 2025. This continues the trend of record-breaking accumulation we witnessed throughout 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n
However, we must watch the downside support levels closely to manage risk. A decisive break below the recent low of $4,655 would be a warning sign. The more critical level to hold is the $4,400 area, as a drop below this point would invalidate the current bullish technical structure.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold rebounds near $4,880 amid weak US data and risk aversion; resistance seen at $4,920, $5,100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16983,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41200\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16983"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}