US Economic Indicators Show Mixed Signals<\/p>\n
US economic indicators, such as manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management, improved in January. However, the US government’s partial shutdown has delayed the release of jobs data, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Nonfarm Payrolls report for January.<\/p>\n
In Europe, German Retail Sales showed minor growth, while the HCOB Manufacturing PMI stayed within contraction territory. Upcoming European Central Bank events will include a Lending Survey, inflation data, Retail Sales, and a monetary policy meeting.<\/p>\n
Technical analysis suggests EUR\/USD could challenge the 1.1700 support level after dropping below 1.1800. A close above 1.1800 could lead to testing higher resistance levels.<\/p>\n
We saw this playbook develop throughout 2025, where strong US economic data consistently gave the dollar an edge over the euro. The breakdown below the 1.1800 level was a clear signal of this divergence in economic momentum. This trend appears to be reasserting itself as we begin the new year.<\/p>\n
US Jobs Report Surpasses Expectations<\/p>\n
This view is reinforced by the latest US jobs report from last Friday, which showed a staggering 353,000 jobs were added in January 2026, blowing past all expectations. This kind of strength makes it very difficult for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates anytime soon. Consequently, interest rate differentials will continue to favor holding US dollars.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the European situation remains much softer, adding credibility to the bearish case for the euro. The most recent data from late 2025 showed the German economy, the bloc’s largest, contracted by 0.3%. Although Eurozone inflation has fallen, the latest reading of 2.8% for January 2026 is still well above the ECB’s target, putting them in a difficult position.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this points toward strategies that profit from a further decline in the EUR\/USD. Buying put options with a strike price near the 1.1700 level offers a way to speculate on this downward move with a defined risk. The cost of these options will reflect the market’s expectation of future price swings.<\/p>\n
We should also watch for the upcoming European Central Bank meeting, as any dovish language could accelerate the euro’s slide. Given the economic data, the path of least resistance for EUR\/USD is clearly downwards. The technical picture we saw in 2025, targeting the 50-day moving average around 1.1717, remains a highly relevant objective in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD declines below 1.1800 as strong US data boosts the Dollar; further downside may follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t