{"id":40629,"date":"2026-02-02T12:36:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T04:36:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=40629"},"modified":"2026-02-02T12:36:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T04:36:32","slug":"week-ahead-gold-struggles-as-nfp-nears-and-dollar-rebounds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-gold-struggles-as-nfp-nears-and-dollar-rebounds\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Gold Struggles as NFP Nears and Dollar Rebounds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40742\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets opened the week in shock as gold underwent a historic technical reset, forcing traders to abandon the parabolic narrative after a brutal liquidation erased weeks of gains in a single session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What had seemed an unstoppable advance towards the $6,000 level unravelled on Friday, now being dubbed \u201cBlack Friday\u201d for precious metals, after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair caught markets off guard. Positioning had been heavily skewed towards a weaker US dollar and a more accommodative central bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Donald Trump chose former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to head the US central bank when Jerome Powell&#39;s leadership term ends in May, giving a frequent Fed critic a chance to put his idea of monetary policy &#39;regime change&#39; into practice <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZITV81dp2h\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZITV81dp2h<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2017229504952012948?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 30, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, the prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve triggered a sharp rebound in the greenback from multi-year lows, unleashing a wave of margin calls that sent gold tumbling from its record high of $5,998 to below the $5,000 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">VIEW Fed holds rates steady as expected, but sees elevated inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tbb0Bha0ed\">https:\/\/t.co\/tbb0Bha0ed<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tbb0Bha0ed\">https:\/\/t.co\/tbb0Bha0ed<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2016814867773050904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Re-Rating and the Bursting of the Gold Bubble<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The policy signal did more than rattle currency pairs; it shattered the momentum trade in hard assets. For much of January, gold had been treated as the ultimate hedge against Fed \u201cdebasement\u201d and the escalation of trade tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold rose, holding above $5,000 an ounce for a second day, as a weak dollar helped to extend a rally fueled by geopolitical risks and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gFlhTOfcGm\">https:\/\/t.co\/gFlhTOfcGm<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2015932469778788722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, with Warsh seen as a staunch defender of the dollar and an advocate of a leaner balance sheet, the easy money floor that had underpinned gold\u2019s 29% rally in January has suddenly disappeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Asset managers boosted their bearish dollar positioning just days before news of Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination as Federal Reserve chair triggered the greenback\u2019s biggest gain since May. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DYa4mvSXuU\">https:\/\/t.co\/DYa4mvSXuU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2018135015565963388?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The sell-off has been compounded by technical washouts and speculative exhaustion. Traders who had been comfortably leaning into the triple-top breakout are now reassessing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, as US 10-year yields remain firm near 4.24%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>XAUUSD | USDX | XAGUSD | SP500 | BTCUSD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"keyevents\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Currency<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Previous<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Analyst Remarks<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2 Feb<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/td><td>48.5<\/td><td>47.9<\/td><td>Manufacturing contraction continues; tariff uncertainty weighs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4 Feb<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/td><td>48K<\/td><td>41K<\/td><td>Private hiring slowdown could pause dollar rally<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 Feb<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Average Hourly Earnings m\/m<\/td><td>0.30%<\/td><td>0.30%<\/td><td>High wages would favour Warsh&#8217;s hawkish side<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 Feb<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Non-Farm Employment Change<\/td><td>67K<\/td><td>50K<\/td><td>A strong beat could seal Gold&#8217;s fate below $5,000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 Feb<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>4.40%<\/td><td>4.40%<\/td><td>Rising rate could reinforce a softer Fed tone<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Markets\u2019 <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic Calendar<\/a><\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"keymove\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/codeMTI2NmE4ZDA0YjU4MjBmN2I2NmUxNWY5MDJkNjk2YTZfRXdmb0VNRHh1TlZmYjBpelZsWERCbngwSGxsaUVFVU9fVG9rZW46WDhRZmJmZk9qbzR0eXd4amVhZ2xJSW9LZ0ZmXzE3NzAwMDUyODk6MTc3MDAwODg4OV9WNA.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAUUSD retraces at key support level 4550<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If bearish momentum extends, it could slide towards 4400 level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk-off sentiment could push prices lower<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Silver (XAGUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/codeZjI2OWRjNzlkMTRmYzFjZWQ2YTkyNmVlNDIyYmIxZDJfdXI1Z0R4ektNYUtsWDlGbW5Qa2tPZjd5YTJUTjA1bmJfVG9rZW46RDdYNWJ2WHZPb2ZpRkZ4NEF6MWxrNGRSZ2dnXzE3NzAwMDUyODk6MTc3MDAwODg4OV9WNA.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAGUSD retraces at key support level 74<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Silver could start consolidating between 86.8 resistance level and 74 support level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Upcoming NFP data is crucial for Silver&#8217;s movements<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/codeYmNjZDQwMDViYjAyYzVlZDMwNTQxYjdhMzc0NTQ3MGVfTnVPQ3lXaThKWTBtWEh3RzZ4elZJbjBQVHhqNFZtWjhfVG9rZW46T1BhY2JIOW9kb3FzcFR4SnVwbWxsOWM4Z2ZmXzE3NzAwMDUyODk6MTc3MDAwODg4OV9WNA.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX has found support at the 95.35 level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USDX is currently testing an important resistance level priced at 97<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If USDX manages to break past current resistance level, it could seek higher prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTC)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/codeMjk4NGY5ZTViNTZhOTNiZWJjZDQ2MDcxMTIwZTA3YjhfZjNrRkM0bDdQcDdyeXJZN3NQQ0w2NEFjWjFyYnRMMnJfVG9rZW46S3VhNGIzY2pVb21HSDF4aDBKSGx0cFFqZ1pjXzE3NzAwMDUyODk6MTc3MDAwODg4OV9WNA.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin extends its bearish momentum towards $75,000 support level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If current support level breaks, it is likely to seek for $70,000 support level<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum (ETH)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/codeNjBmMzlmMTc4ZTY0ZDI0NzRhYTQ3OTA1OWVmZjYzM2RfeGdUa2tTeWRQcTJhM25wMHdrNVNQb1ZxSGFQQUVZOHJfVG9rZW46WEhicGJhYUZxb21Najl4SmFtNWxTUkhiZ2xlXzE3NzAwMDUyODk6MTc3MDAwODg4OV9WNA.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ethereum is forming lower lows and lower highs indicating a bearish trend<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ethereum is testing current support level priced at 2200<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If current support level doesn&#8217;t hold, it could slide lower to 2000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold\u2019s constructive outlook continues to be supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement further interest rate cuts in the coming months. The appointment of former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by US President Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell in May has reinforced this sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, a more dovish Fed chair does not guarantee aggressive rate reductions. Nevertheless, the change in leadership could steer market expectations towards lower rates over time, a scenario likely to weigh on the US Dollar while maintaining a supportive backdrop for gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Create a live <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets open cautiously with gold trading near recent lows ahead of NFP, as attention shifts to the outlook under new Fed leadership. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":40634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-40629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40629\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}