{"id":40057,"date":"2026-01-26T10:19:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T02:19:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=40057"},"modified":"2026-01-26T10:19:20","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T02:19:20","slug":"oil-holds-as-middle-east-risk-lifts-premium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-holds-as-middle-east-risk-lifts-premium\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Holds as Middle East Risk Lifts Premium"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41758\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI traded near <strong>$61.21<\/strong> after rising more than <strong>2%<\/strong> in the prior session<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent held around <strong>$66<\/strong>, with both benchmarks up <strong>2.7%<\/strong> last week<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices extended gains on Monday following a strong prior session, as global tensions between the United States and Iran kept markets on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move came despite the resumption of <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mCncPDZRNw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">full operations at Kazakhstan\u2019s main export route<\/a>, underscoring how security concerns continue to outweigh supply-side relief in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude futures rose <strong>12 cents<\/strong>, or <strong>0.18%<\/strong>, to <strong>$66 a barrel<\/strong> in early Asian trade, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at <strong>$61.21 a barrel<\/strong>, up <strong>14 cents<\/strong>, or <strong>0.23%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both benchmarks closed last week with gains of <strong>2.7%<\/strong>, marking their highest weekly settlement levels since <strong>January 14<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The price action reflects a market that remains sensitive to headline risk. Supply flows have improved on paper, yet traders continue to price in disruption risk amid escalating military rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Donald Trump wants quick repairs made to Venezuela&#39;s oil infrastructure to get more crude flowing as soon as possible. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uUIOxnwjUN\">https:\/\/t.co\/uUIOxnwjUN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2015051185690907024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 24, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A cautious forecast suggests oil may stay supported as long as global uncertainty persists, even if physical supply data improves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Middle East Tensions Reignite Supply Fears<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest leg higher in crude followed fresh signals of US military mobilisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A US aircraft carrier strike group and other assets are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, reinforcing concerns around regional stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the United States had an \u201carmada\u201d heading toward Iran, while adding that he hoped force would not be required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Donald Trump revived his threats to use military force against Iran\u2019s senior leadership amid a violent crackdown on nationwide protests, saying late Thursday that an armada of US Navy vessels was en route to the Middle East <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EXtFRLSShr\">https:\/\/t.co\/EXtFRLSShr<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2014716802832413018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also warned Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme. Iranian officials responded sharply, with a senior figure stating on Friday that Iran would treat any attack \u201cas an all-out war against us.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These exchanges have injected a fresh risk premium into oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders remain wary that even without direct conflict, heightened tensions could disrupt shipping routes or trigger precautionary stockpiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If rhetoric continues to intensify, crude prices may remain elevated, even in the absence of immediate supply outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Supply Recovery Fails to Cool the Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the supply side, Kazakhstan\u2019s <strong>Caspian Pipeline Consortium<\/strong> said it returned to full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal on Sunday, after completing maintenance at one of its three mooring points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said an offshore mooring is back online, enabling crude to flow through a route that accounts for about 90% of Kazakh oil exports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/B2d0XgnVK0\">https:\/\/t.co\/B2d0XgnVK0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2015392736724058614?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The restart eased concerns about reduced exports from the region, yet had little dampening effect on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This muted response highlights how global risk currently dominates trading behaviour. Markets appear willing to look past incremental supply improvements when broader security risks remain unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless there is a sustained easing in global tension, supply recoveries alone may struggle to push prices materially lower in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US Weather Disruptions Add Short-Term Support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Further support for crude came from the United States, where crude and natural gas production fell as a winter storm began sweeping across the country on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The winter storm sweeping the US has begun disrupting the operations of industrial oil and gas consumers on Texas\u2019 Gulf Coast, including refiners, chemical plants and manufacturers. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/t5SbkyjjoG\">https:\/\/t.co\/t5SbkyjjoG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2015505017017430405?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weather event also triggered a spike in spot power prices, signalling short-term strain across parts of the energy system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While weather-related disruptions are typically temporary, they can tighten prompt supply conditions and add to near-term price support, particularly when inventories are already under scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If cold conditions persist longer than expected, energy markets may remain sensitive to further production interruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Crude Oil (CL-OIL)<\/strong> 1-minute chart shows prices currently trading at <strong>$61.135<\/strong>, down <strong>0.23%<\/strong> in the session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier, the price hit a high of <strong>$61.280<\/strong> before easing lower, although still well above the session low of <strong>$60.895<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-24-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40062\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The short-term trend reflects a recent pullback after a strong bullish rally, with price consolidating between the 5-, 10-, and 20-period moving averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The MA5 (yellow) remains slightly above the MA10, suggesting potential short-term support near <strong>$61.12<\/strong>. A breakout above <strong>$61.20\u201361.28<\/strong> may restore bullish momentum, while a drop below <strong>$61.08<\/strong> could bring renewed selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volume has tapered off after the initial surge, indicating a pause in conviction. Traders may wait for a clear directional move above resistance or below support before committing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices remain firm after a 2.7% weekly gain, with US\u2013Iran tensions offsetting resumed pipeline flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-40057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil holds steady amid Middle East tensions boosting risk premiums. 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