Oil prices recently saw a decline after hitting a two-month high. This drop is due to easing geopolitical tensions and comments from President Trump, which reduced concerns about disruptions to Iranian oil supplies.<\/p>\n
Brent oil prices are expected to remain low, approaching USD 59 per barrel by the end of the year. This projection depends on the political climate in Venezuela and the continuation of OPEC’s quota pause, which supports a price floor in the high USD 50s.<\/p>\n
The US government continues to face a substantial budget deficit, despite an increase in tariff revenue. As of December, the budget shortfall hit $144.75 billion, a 68 percent rise from the previous year.<\/p>\n
Market forecasts show Pump.fun (PUMP) gained around 5% after the release of a new feature for creators. This follows a 3% drop the previous day, potentially boosting trade activity on the Solana-based platform.<\/p>\n
In the currency market, EUR\/USD managed an upward move, reaching the 1.1630 region. The British Pound strengthened against the US Dollar, reclaiming the 1.3400 level, and Bitcoin maintained a value above $95,400 with a 5% weekly increase.<\/p>\n
We see the recent pullback in Brent crude as an opportunity, as the risk premium tied to Iran evaporates. This drop from a two-month high was predictable once fears of an immediate supply disruption eased. The market’s focus is now shifting back to fundamental supply and demand.<\/p>\n
Selling out-of-the-money call options on Brent futures could be a sound strategy to collect premium as implied volatility likely decreases. Looking back at 2025, we saw similar price action when Middle East tensions briefly flared and then subsided in the third quarter. A price floor in the high $50s seems probable, making aggressive bearish bets risky.<\/p>\n
This view is supported by the OPEC+ group’s decision last month to hold production quotas steady, which should prevent a total price collapse. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also projected in its January 2026 short-term outlook a slight global supply surplus for the first half of the year. Therefore, we should anticipate a range-bound market rather than a steep decline.<\/p>\n
The US dollar’s weakness is another key factor, driven by the massive federal deficit that hit a record for December 2024. That shortfall was 68 percent higher than the previous year, a trend that puts long-term pressure on the currency. This fundamental headwind makes us cautious about being long the dollar.<\/p>\n
This environment suggests that buying call options on major currency pairs like EUR\/USD and GBP\/USD could offer value. Both pairs are reclaiming key technical levels as the dollar fades. We should monitor upcoming U.S. inflation data, as any sign of cooling could accelerate the dollar’s decline.<\/p>\n
Gold is pulling back from its recent highs, which is consistent with the easing of geopolitical risk. With 10-year Treasury yields holding firm above 4.5% last week, positive real yields are currently capping gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. We see the $4,600 per ounce level as an important area of support.<\/p>\n
In contrast, Bitcoin is holding its ground above $95,000, signaling its role as a high-risk asset sensitive to broader market liquidity. Open interest in the options market shows a significant concentration around the $100,000 strike price for the February 2026 expiry. This indicates it is a key psychological level that could attract price action in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oil prices dip on easing tensions; Pump.fun rises 5%; Bitcoin steady above $95K; US deficit grows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39381\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}