The FXStreet Insights Team consists of journalists selecting market insights from experts. Content involves commercial notes and added insights from both internal and external analysts.<\/p>\n
The USD\/MXN has broken its recent range after failing to overcome the 50-day moving average. This move puts the key low from July 2024, around 17.60, directly in our sights. Traders should view this as a continuation of the bearish trend.<\/p>\n
This downward pressure is supported by fundamentals, as Banxico held its key interest rate at 11.00% through the end of 2025. This contrasts with recent weak US jobs data, which has increased speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut by March. The significant rate differential continues to favor holding pesos over dollars.<\/p>\n
Given the clear bearish momentum, we see an opportunity in buying put options with strike prices below the 17.60 support level. A break of this level could accelerate the move, making strikes around 17.50 or 17.40 attractive for the coming weeks. Bear put spreads could also be used to lower the cost of entry while targeting the 17.30\/17.15 zone.<\/p>\n
We must acknowledge the positive divergence on momentum indicators, which hints at slowing downward momentum but is not yet a reversal signal. For traders anticipating a short-term bounce, the descending trend line near 18.00 represents a key resistance area. Selling call options or implementing bear call spreads with strikes at or above 18.00 could be a prudent strategy to capitalize on a failing rally.<\/p>\n
The peso’s underlying strength reflects the continued foreign direct investment from the nearshoring trend we saw accelerate throughout 2025, which posted a record $43.9 billion in the first three quarters. Historically, periods of strong capital inflows have sustained peso strength for multiple quarters. This fundamental backdrop suggests that selling any rallies in USD\/MXN may be the more favorable long-term play.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/MXN struggles below 50-day average; key support at 17.60 with risks toward 17.30\u201317.15 ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39380\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}