{"id":39330,"date":"2026-01-16T13:25:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T05:25:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=39330"},"modified":"2026-01-16T13:25:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T05:25:19","slug":"oil-drifts-lower-as-iran-risk-premium-fades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-drifts-lower-as-iran-risk-premium-fades\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Drifts Lower as Iran Risk Premium Fades"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil8-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41764\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent trades near $63.55 while WTI holds around $59.04 as geopolitical risk premiums unwind.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ample supply and balanced outlook from OPEC continue to cap upside momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as concerns over supply disruptions eased. Brent crude slipped 0.3% to <strong>$63.55 per barrel<\/strong>, while <strong>WTI fell 0.3% to $59.04 per barrel<\/strong> by 0418 GMT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pullback followed comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that Iran\u2019s crackdown on protesters was easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Donald Trump is following through on a greater share of his threats in his second term, suggesting a higher risk for Iran even as the US president signals a pause in attacks on the country, a Bloomberg Economics report shows <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JAOsUX3lio\">https:\/\/t.co\/JAOsUX3lio<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2012004116462031346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This reduced fears of imminent military action that could disrupt oil flows from the region. Earlier in the week, both Brent and WTI had climbed to multi-month highs after protests intensified in Iran and Trump signalled potential strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Venezuela oil fetching 30% higher price, U.S. energy chief says, after first sale worth $500 million <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LYIkQrwX3U\">https:\/\/t.co\/LYIkQrwX3U<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2011987855703159184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the latest dip, Brent remains higher than a week ago and is still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. That reflects how sensitive prices remain to geopolitical headlines, even as immediate risks fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fundamentals Keep a Lid on Sustained Rallies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While sentiment has driven recent price swings, the broader supply backdrop remains comfortable. Analysts continue to flag expectations of ample supply this year, limiting the scope for a sustained breakout higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Additional sales of  Venezuelan oil are expected in the coming days and weeks, according to a report from CNN. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uA8FC0ynoJ\">pic.twitter.com\/uA8FC0ynoJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2011796685999976668?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 15, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>OPEC said on Wednesday that global oil supply and demand are expected to remain balanced in <strong>2026<\/strong>, with demand growth in <strong>2027<\/strong> rising at a pace similar to this year. That assessment reinforces the view that the market is not facing a structural shortage in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants also point out that geopolitical spikes tend to fade quickly unless they translate into real disruptions in physical barrel flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude is struggling to extend its recovery after rebounding from the <strong>54.867<\/strong> support zone. Price has now pulled back just below the <strong>59.00<\/strong> mark, showing hesitation near a short-term resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 5- and 10-day moving averages are beginning to converge, reflecting slowing upward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-12-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-39331\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> histogram is flattening, while the signal line threatens to roll over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This suggests waning bullish strength, especially after failing to clear the 63.00\u201364.00 area in recent sessions. Still, the medium-term trend remains sideways, with volatility compressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Range-Bound Trading Likely to Persist<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Shell added a longer-term supportive note by releasing its <strong>2026 Energy Security Scenarios<\/strong>, estimating that primary energy demand by <strong>2050<\/strong> could be <strong>25% higher<\/strong> than last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this underpins the long-term outlook for oil demand, it offers limited support for near-term pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain driven by headlines rather than fundamentals. Without a clear revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful supply bottleneck, crude appears set to stay range-bound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices ease in Asian trade as Iran tensions cool and supply remains ample, keeping crude range-bound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-39330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}