WTI crude oil increased to around $60.35 in early Asian trading on Thursday, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iran. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise in US crude inventories, which have increased by 3.391 million barrels, against expectations of a 2.2 million barrel decline.<\/p>\n
Tensions in Iran are contributing to the oil price fluctuations, with US President Donald Trump warning of decisive action if Iran executes protestors. Any changes in geopolitical circumstances may influence WTI prices in the coming days. <\/p>\n
WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is a major type of crude oil characterised by its low gravity and sulfur content, making it a high-quality, easily refined option. The price is influenced by global demand and supply, political conditions, and actions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).<\/p>\n
Oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and EIA can impact WTI prices. These reports reflect supply-demand balances, with declines in inventories suggesting increased demand. OPEC’s production decisions also play a role, where quota reductions can increase prices due to tightened supply.<\/p>\n
Looking back at early 2025, we remember when WTI prices were struggling around $60 a barrel amid concerns over Iranian civil unrest and rising US inventories. Today, the market landscape is entirely different, with WTI currently trading just above $78.00. The focus has shifted from internal protests to broader supply and demand fundamentals that are keeping prices firm.<\/p>\n
The geopolitical risk premium that we saw emerge from the Iranian protests in 2025 has been replaced by tensions surrounding stalled nuclear talks. This continued uncertainty is keeping implied volatility elevated in longer-dated options, suggesting traders are pricing in the potential for future supply disruptions. We see this as an opportunity to consider buying call spreads to position for potential upside spikes while defining risk.<\/p>\n
Unlike the surprising inventory build of 3.391 million barrels reported this time last year, the most recent EIA data for the week ending January 9, 2026, showed a significant draw of 4.5 million barrels. This drawdown, coupled with the International Energy Agency’s recent upward revision of its 2026 global demand forecast to 103.5 million bpd, points to a fundamentally tighter market. This continued demand strength suggests that any price dips will likely be met with buying pressure.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the OPEC+ group, which met last week, decided to maintain its current production quotas through the first quarter of 2026. This decision to hold supply steady in the face of strengthening demand signals underpins the current price structure. Historically, OPEC+ discipline has been a key factor in preventing significant price downturns, as we saw them do throughout the economic recovery of the last few years.<\/p>\n
Given these factors, we feel that strategies that benefit from stable-to-rising prices are prudent in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money puts could be an effective way to collect premium, as the combination of tight supply and solid demand provides a strong floor for the market. We are watching the $72-$74 price level as a key area of support.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI crude rises on Iran tensions, U.S. inventory buildup; geopolitical shifts and OPEC moves affect prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}