The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is advancing in an impulsive Elliott Wave structure, which began from the low on 28 October 2025. This progression is a five-wave sequence, with wave 1 culminating at $91.67 and a corrective pullback in wave 2 reaching $83.22.<\/p>\n
Wave 2’s internal subdivision formed a double three corrective pattern. Wave ((w)) ended at $84.89, followed by a wave ((x)) rally that ended at $88.48, and wave ((y)) completed at $83.22, finishing wave 2. Wave 3 then took over, with its starting advance in wave ((i)) ending at $92.35 and wave ((ii)) completing a pullback to $88.09.<\/p>\n
The Index continued in wave ((iii)); within it, wave (i) completed at $91.23, and a pullback in wave (ii) ended at $88.79. Wave (iii) is nearing completion, with a corrective wave (iv) expected next, followed by a rally in wave (v). In the short term, the key support at $83.22 should attract buyers, with the retracements adhering to patterns of three, seven, or eleven swings. As the impulsive sequence progresses, further upside is anticipated.<\/p>\n
Based on the strong impulsive structure developing since the October 28, 2025 low, our posture should be firmly bullish. Any long positions taken should use the wave 2 bottom at $83.22 as a critical stop-loss level. A breach of this price would invalidate the immediate bullish count and force a reassessment of the entire structure.<\/p>\n
The analysis suggests we are in the middle of a powerful third wave, which is typically the strongest and longest part of an impulse. We should look for any near-term dips, such as the expected wave (iv) pullback, as opportunities to initiate or add to long positions. These pullbacks offer favorable entry points for buying call options or selling put credit spreads with expirations in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
This technical strength is supported by the broader macroeconomic environment we’ve seen develop. The latest Consumer Price Index data released last week for December 2025 showed core inflation remaining unexpectedly persistent at 3.4%, challenging expectations for a smoother decline. This persistent inflation increases the appeal of gold as a traditional hedge, directly benefiting miners.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, we’ve seen the US Dollar Index (DXY) trend lower since its peak last November, falling from 106.50 to around 103.20 today. This dollar weakness provides a significant tailwind for gold prices, which are denominated in dollars. Data from the World Gold Council also confirmed that central bank gold purchases in the final quarter of 2025 continued at a historic pace, absorbing supply and putting a floor under prices.<\/p>\n
The current setup in GDX is reminiscent of the market action in early 2023, when fears of a central bank policy error led to a sharp rally in precious metals. With the market now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut by mid-2026 to support a slowing economy, conditions are ripe for further upside. Therefore, using options to construct bullish positions allows for leveraged exposure while defining risk.<\/p>\n
As wave (iii) of ((iii)) appears to be nearing completion, traders should exercise some patience before entering new positions. The ideal strategy would be to wait for the anticipated corrective dip in wave (iv) to materialize. This entry would position us well to capture the subsequent rally in wave (v), which will complete the larger wave ((iii)) structure.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GDX advances in a five-wave Elliott sequence; wave 3 progresses with key support at $83.22.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39094"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39094\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}