{"id":38750,"date":"2026-01-10T04:02:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T20:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/carsten-fritsch-from-commerzbank-observes-a-sharp-drop-in-gold-and-silver-prices-followed-by-recovery\/"},"modified":"2026-01-10T04:02:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T20:02:26","slug":"carsten-fritsch-from-commerzbank-observes-a-sharp-drop-in-gold-and-silver-prices-followed-by-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/live-updates\/carsten-fritsch-from-commerzbank-observes-a-sharp-drop-in-gold-and-silver-prices-followed-by-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank observes a sharp drop in Gold and Silver prices, followed by recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline on Thursday, with gold nearing $4,400 per ounce and silver briefly falling below $74. Despite the drop, both metals showed some recovery, reflecting short-term market uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>Recent days have seen notable price volatility in gold and silver, suggesting an uncertain short-term price outlook. A correction removed references to US Nonfarm Payrolls data expectations from the initial report.<\/p>\n<h3>EUR\/USD and GBP\/USD Trends<\/h3>\n<p>EUR\/USD reached new lows, targeting 1.1600, due to gains in the US Dollar following mixed US Nonfarm Payroll data. GBP\/USD fell below 1.3400, under pressure from the strong US Dollar, approaching its 200-day SMA.<\/p>\n<p>Gold flirted with yearly highs around $4,500, benefiting from a risk-off sentiment despite a strong Greenback. Bitcoin remained around $90,000 as institutional demand decreased, and Ethereum held over $3,000 but faced weakness from ETF outflows.<\/p>\n<p>XRP&#8217;s retail demand declined, pressing against the 50-day EMA support with futures Open Interest dropping to $4.15 billion. The US CPI release next week may impact market movements amid current geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n<p>The considerable price fluctuations in recent days signal significant uncertainty about the short-term outlook. The mixed US Nonfarm Payrolls report for December 2025, which showed the economy added a solid 195,000 jobs but with weaker wage growth, has left markets without clear direction. We are seeing this anxiety reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has climbed above 21.<\/p>\n<p>Precious metals are clearly reacting to this nervousness, with Gold\u2019s sharp dip toward $4,400 followed by a powerful rally toward $4,500. This whiplash action suggests strong underlying demand on any weakness, and we&#8217;ve noted major gold ETFs have seen net inflows of over $1.5 billion in the first week of the year. This environment is well-suited for options strategies designed to profit from large price swings rather than a specific direction.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Expectations and the Fed<\/h3>\n<p>We believe the market is now aggressively scaling back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Just last month, fed funds futures priced in a nearly 70% chance of a rate cut by March 2026; today, that probability has fallen below 40%. This shift is the primary driver behind the US Dollar&#8217;s recent strength.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the firmer dollar is putting heavy pressure on pairs like EUR\/USD, which is now eyeing a drop to the 1.1600 level. Similarly, GBP\/USD has broken below 1.3400 and is now challenging its critical 200-day moving average near 1.3380. Derivative positions that benefit from further declines in these currencies should be carefully considered in the coming days.<\/p>\n<p>All attention must now shift to next Tuesday\u2019s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be the next major catalyst. The current market action is reminiscent of the choppy trading we saw in late 2024 when being nimble was key. A hotter-than-expected inflation print would likely accelerate the US Dollar&#8217;s rally and further punish risk assets.<\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold and silver drop sharply amid market uncertainty; Bitcoin steady; US Dollar strength pressures EUR\/USD and GBP\/USD.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}