The analysis of the Nasdaq 100 uses the Elliott Wave Principle, indicating that if the November 21 low of 23854 remains unbreached, the Bull market could persist until at least April. However, any fall below this level suggests a bear market might already be in progress.<\/p>\n
Currently, the Nasdaq 100 has moved through various waves, hitting a low of 24647, a rally to 25716, and a subsequent low at 25086. With these patterns in place, the outlook suggests the index will advance in a series of waves, potentially reaching a high of around 27225.<\/p>\n
Upcoming movements expect the index to reach around 26825 before a drop to approximately 26155, eventually climbing to roughly 27225. If the pattern shifts to an overlapping ending diagonal, the index could rally lower, nearing 27860. Yet, once the ongoing wave completes, a bear market akin to 2022 is anticipated before another long-term rally.<\/p>\n
Warning levels\u201425639, 25428, 25086, 24647, and 23854\u2014serve as indicators for possible trend reversals, adjusted upwards as the index rises. The author offers this analysis not as investment advice but as an informational overview.<\/p>\n
Based on our analysis from early 2025, the expectation was for the Nasdaq 100 to push toward new all-time highs before a significant bear market began. The index was seen to be in a powerful upward wave, holding key support levels that were established in late 2024. This bullish phase was projected to extend into the second quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n
Looking back, that forecast was largely accurate as the index climbed through the first half of 2025, peaking at approximately 27,650 in late May before the predicted downturn took hold. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which was trading near multi-year lows around 13 during that final ascent, subsequently spiked above 30 in the third quarter of 2025, confirming a major shift in market sentiment. This historical data shows the market followed the anticipated path from bullish euphoria to a bearish reversal.<\/p>\n
Today, with the Nasdaq 100 trading near 19,800, we are clearly within the “2022-like” bear market that was anticipated. Current economic data shows a slowdown in corporate earnings growth, with Q4 2025 earnings for tech companies coming in 5% below analyst consensus. This environment suggests that rallies are likely to be temporary and met with selling pressure.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this means volatility is a key asset to monitor and trade. The elevated VIX makes buying options expensive, so strategies like selling call credit spreads during short-term rallies toward resistance could be advantageous. The goal is to capitalize on the combination of a falling price and declining implied volatility after a bounce.<\/p>\n
We see significant resistance near the 21,000 level, a key support area that failed during the late 2025 decline. As such, traders should consider buying put options or establishing bearish debit spreads on any approach to that zone, giving them downside exposure with defined risk. Recent statistics show the CBOE equity put\/call ratio remains elevated at 0.95, indicating a persistent demand for downside protection that supports this bearish outlook.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Elliott Wave analysis suggests Nasdaq 100 may rally toward 27225, unless key support at 23854 breaks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}