EUR\/JPY has slipped below 183.00, reaching near a three-week low at 181.57. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 50.96, suggesting muted momentum, while the primary resistance is at the nine-day EMA of 183.44.<\/p>\n
In its fourth consecutive session of losses, EUR\/JPY hovered around 182.80 on Wednesday. This dip follows Germany\u2019s Retail Sales report, which showed a year-over-year increase of 1.1% in November, while monthly sales fell by 0.6%, against a 0.3% slide in October and market expectations of a 0.2% rise.<\/p>\n
Technical analysis shows the EUR\/JPY cross above the 50-day EMA but below the nine-day EMA, indicating potential consolidation. Support is near the three-week low of 181.57 and further at the 50-day EMA at 181.31. Holding above the 50-day EMA could sustain the medium-term uptrend.<\/p>\n
A rebound could see EUR\/JPY moving towards the nine-day EMA at 183.44, possibly extending to the all-time high of 184.95. Currently, the Euro is weakest against the Japanese Yen, with daily percentage changes marked at -0.16% against the Yen. The overall market outlook remains cautious with various economic factors in play.<\/p>\n
The EUR\/JPY cross has continued the weakening momentum we observed at the end of last year. After breaking below the 183.00 level in late December 2025, the pair has now decisively breached the 50-day EMA support that was holding at 181.31. We see the pair now trading around 180.50, signaling that the short-term trend has turned negative.<\/p>\n
This downward pressure comes from a growing divergence in central bank outlooks that is becoming clearer in early 2026. The European Central Bank is sounding more concerned about slowing growth, building on the weak German retail sales data from November 2025. In contrast, recent comments from Bank of Japan officials have fueled speculation that a move away from negative interest rates could come in the first half of this year, strengthening the yen.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, we believe traders should position for further downside or at least heightened volatility. One-month implied volatility in EUR\/JPY has now risen to 11.5%, a sharp increase from the 8.2% average we saw in the final quarter of 2025. Purchasing put options with a strike price around 179.00 offers a clear way to capitalize on this breakdown.<\/p>\n
Alternatively, for those expecting a more gradual decline or consolidation, selling out-of-the-money call spreads could be a prudent strategy. The former support level around 181.57, which was the three-week low back on December 17, 2025, should now act as significant resistance. This approach allows for collecting premium as the pair struggles to regain any upward traction.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY slips to 181.57 amid soft momentum; support holds at 50-day EMA, rebound prospects remain cautious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38475\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}