{"id":38113,"date":"2026-01-02T18:11:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T10:11:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=38113"},"modified":"2026-01-02T18:11:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T10:11:06","slug":"oil-drifts-as-supply-glut-caps-global-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-drifts-as-supply-glut-caps-global-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Drifts as Supply Glut Caps Global Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil9-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41765\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent slipped 0.05% to $60.80 a barrel, while WTI eased 0.05% to $57.37.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent fell 18% in 2025, marking its sharpest annual loss since 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices steadied in early trade as markets balanced geopolitical risk against entrenched oversupply. Brent crude hovered near $60.80 a barrel, down 0.05%, while WTI traded around $57.37, also down 0.05%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price action stayed close to three-month averages, reflecting a market that struggles to extend rallies after a heavy year of losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At least three tankers carrying Russian crude are heading for Reliance Industries\u2019 plant on India\u2019s west coast after the refiner began modest purchases following a brief pause due to heightened US scrutiny <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/82YyxzeUYS\">https:\/\/t.co\/82YyxzeUYS<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2006972417076253095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trading remained subdued, with participants reluctant to chase moves in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prevailing tone suggested consolidation rather than trend change, as macro and supply forces continued to dominate near-term pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Gulf Tensions Add Risk Premium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitical risk ticked higher amid escalating tensions between <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong> and the <strong>United Arab Emirates<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their respective proxies clashed in <strong>Yemen<\/strong>, following a dispute centred on a strike on a Yemeni port that serves as a gateway to the country\u2019s oil-producing region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The United Arab Emirates said it was pulling out its remaining forces in Yemen after Saudi Arabia backed a call for UAE forces to leave the country within 24 hours, in a major crisis between the two Gulf powers and oil producers <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CfKt8obCD2\">https:\/\/t.co\/CfKt8obCD2<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qMauZbf8I2\">pic.twitter.com\/qMauZbf8I2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2006040081828831348?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>These developments injected a modest risk premium into prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the impact remained limited as traders judged the situation unlikely to disrupt global supply flows in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oversupply Continues to Dominate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader supply picture continued to weigh on oil. Persistent gluts pushed prices to their weakest annual performance in several years, with Brent crude falling 18% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9EbPubcnk8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Elevated production<\/a> and subdued demand growth have kept inventories comfortable, reducing sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This imbalance has blunted upside reactions even when tensions rise, reinforcing the market\u2019s range-bound behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices remain capped below the $59 resistance, slipping back toward the mid-range after failing to sustain momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-1-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-38114\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader structure since August shows a persistent downtrend from the $77.895 high, with price now consolidating between <strong>$54.86 and $59<\/strong>. Moving averages remain flat, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MACD lines are converging near the zero line, further reinforcing a neutral-to-bearish tone in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a break below $55 would reopen downside risks, upside gains remain limited unless bulls can reclaim the $60 threshold convincingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook Amid Competing Forces<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices may continue to drift as geopolitical risk adds background support but fails to outweigh oversupply. Unless tensions escalate into material supply disruptions or inventories tighten, rallies may remain limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, Brent may oscillate between $59.00 and $62.00, while WTI may trade within a $55.00 to $59.00 range as markets reassess supply and demand dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil trades near three-month averages as Saudi-UAE tensions add risk, but oversupply keeps prices restrained. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-38113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38113\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}