SoftBank Group Corp has experienced a dramatic increase in its stock price, climbing from $18 to nearly $45 within weeks, before reducing by a third. Previously, the stock had been trading between $10 and $20 for three years, with the $18.49 level acting as a consistent floor supported by buyers.<\/p>\n
The stock’s recent breakout saw it surge past $25, a level that had acted as a persistent barrier. The move upwards was rapid, peaking just under $45, driven by momentum traders and possibly catching short-sellers off guard. Currently, SoftBank’s stock has retraced to around $28-29, testing the previous resistance at $25 as new support.<\/p>\n
The key for bulls is maintaining the stock above $25; this would affirm the breakout and perhaps propel the stock higher. A failure to hold this level might lead to renewed selling toward $18, undoing recent progress. The weekly chart suggests that any shifts in trend will take time.<\/p>\n
Volume is crucial to interpreting these moves; a lighter volume on the selloff compared to the breakout could signal bullish tendencies. Traders are advised to protect themselves with stops below $24 and remain cautious of any price strength over $30. The $25 level remains pivotal in this unfolding scenario.<\/p>\n
Given the recent parabolic move to nearly $45 and the subsequent pullback, the coming weeks are critical. With the stock now testing the breakout zone around $28, derivative traders should be positioning for the next major leg. The clear line in the sand at $25 provides a well-defined pivot for structuring trades.<\/p>\n
For those who believe the breakout is real, selling out-of-the-money put options for late January or February 2026 with a strike near $25 could be a high-probability trade. This view is supported by recent news, as ARM Holdings, a key SoftBank asset, just reported a 25% year-over-year revenue increase. The broader AI market, central to SoftBank’s strategy, also grew by over 35% in 2025, providing a strong fundamental tailwind.<\/p>\n
We’ve seen analysis showing the initial surge past $25 happened on trading volume nearly 300% of the average, a sign of strong institutional buying. The recent pullback, however, has occurred on significantly lighter volume, suggesting this is a consolidation phase rather than a true reversal. More aggressive traders might consider buying call options with a $35 strike price, betting on a sharp bounce back toward the recent highs.<\/p>\n
Conversely, if the stock fails to hold $25, buying put options is the most direct way to play for a decline back toward the old $18 base. We have to remember that before this year’s excitement, SoftBank spent the better part of 2022 through 2024 struggling with headwinds from its China-based investments. A failure at this key technical level could signal that those older concerns are resurfacing.<\/p>\n
The violence of the initial breakout implies that implied volatility in the options market is likely elevated. For traders who are less certain of the direction but expect a decisive move, a long straddle or strangle could be effective. This strategy would profit whether the stock reclaims its upward momentum or breaks down decisively through support in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SoftBank’s stock surged to $45, retraced to $29; $25 now serves as crucial support for bulls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t